Asia Economics Update Which countries are manipulating their currencies? The US Treasury is due to report soon which of its major trading partners, if any, have been manipulating their currencies for unfair advantage. Vietnam is currently the only country in Emerging Asia... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.) Housing market activity fell for a second consecutive month in September. That leaves little chance of a pick-up in transactions or mortgage lending before the end of 2018. And with interest rates on... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Sep.) The rebound in non-energy inflation in September will reassure the Riksbank that it is right to be planning to tighten monetary policy in the coming months. We expect underlying inflation to continue... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Balance of Payments (Aug.) Turkey’s current account position improved further in August adding to the evidence that a weaker lira is helping the economy to rebalance. But this adjustment has almost entirely reflect a slump in... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s recovery to peak in mid-2019 The Gulf’s economic recovery looks set to gather pace over the coming quarters and growth is likely to be stronger than most expect. But the recovery will probably peak in the middle of next year and... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Growth to slow further despite policy easing Policymakers have responded to growing signs of weakness in China’s domestic economy by ramping up policy support. But with momentum still slowing and trade tensions escalating, growth will not... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank raise rates by another 100bps? Based on our forecast for economic growth to slow, there is little prospect of the Bank of Canada raising interest rates by another 100bps over the next year. Even if the economy maintained its recent... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: latest steps to tackle inflation lack real punch The Turkish government’s latest plan to tackle high and rising inflation will probably have a limited impact and it reinforces our view that last month’s aggressive interest rate hike did not herald a... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity slows as interest rates rise Mortgage interest rates have continued to trend higher, and look poised to breach 5% for the first time since early 2011 in October. Alongside mortgage lending standards which are still tight, that... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP monthly estimate (Aug.) The strength of the latest data has led us to revise our forecast for growth in Q3 up from 0.5% to 0.6%, which would make it the strongest quarter since 2016. Nonetheless, annual GDP growth will... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Election options come into focus Nigeria’s February 2019 election will offer a stark policy choice between stability under President Muhammadu Buhari and liberalising reforms under opposition leader Atiku Abubakar. While the vote... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could Czech property yields be about to turn sharply? The increasing maturity of the Czech property market means that, despite signs of slowing rental growth, the rise in Czech government bond yields will not be mirrored in property yields. 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Sustained recovery in sterling unlikely until next year Sterling recovered some lost ground in September. But we still think that it will drop back over the rest of 2018. Indeed, it seems highly unlikely that a Brexit deal will be agreed (and ratified by... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Strength of Romanian leu built on shaky foundations The Romanian central bank’s FX intervention this year has kept the leu artificially strong, causing economic imbalances to build. Unless policymakers change course soon and loosen their grip on the... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian Consumer Prices (Sep.) September’s strong inflation data are unlikely to change the Norges Bank’s plans to wait until Q1 next year before raising interest rates again. Looking beyond that, we think that falling oil prices... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
