UK Data Response Public Finances (Sep.) Given lower-than-expected borrowing in the first five months of the fiscal year to August, the OBR is likely to revise down its forecast for the deficit this year alongside the budget. But lower-than... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Currency rallies ease pressure on central banks The recent rallies in the Russian ruble and the Turkish lira have added weight to our view that central banks in both countries will refrain from tightening policy further when they meet next week... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa budget speech, Angolan recession, Ethiopian reshuffle Despite the weakness of the economy, South Africa’s new finance minister will probably use next week’s budget review to tighten fiscal policy, rather than to announce new stimulus measures. On a... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Tightening cycle to be quicker than most expect The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to increase its policy rate by 25bp last night to 2.75%, suggested that a gradual tightening cycle would lie in store over the next 12-18... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Headwinds loom for retail rents in Spain The short-term outlook for prime retail occupier demand in Barcelona and Madrid should support a further rise in rents next year. But with a number of headwinds on the horizon, rental growth is likely... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Sep.) Polish activity data for September were softer than expected and suggest that GDP growth weakened from 5.1% y/y in Q2 to 4.5% y/y in Q3. This slowdown is likely to continue over the next few quarters. 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Riksbank to lay groundwork for tightening While the Riksbank, the Norges Bank and the ECB are likely to keep interest rates unchanged next week, we expect them all to signal tighter policy ahead. The recent rebound in underlying inflation... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Share buybacks won’t prevent fiscal slippage In an effort to put its finances back onto the track set out in this year’s budget, the government is now considering ordering state-owned firms to initiate share buybacks, according to reports this... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global fallout from a no deal Brexit would be modest While a disorderly no deal Brexit might, depending on its nature, deliver a significant short-term blow to the UK economy and financial markets, any global fallout would probably be small. 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Taking stock of Amlo’s policy proposals The platform of Mexico’s president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (Amlo) has become clearer in recent weeks and a sudden lurch to the left when he takes office in December seems unlikely. One... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB to stick to the script amid mixed opinions The ECB has certainly given some mixed messages over recent weeks, with some Council members judging that the first rate hike should come during next summer while others assert that Q4 2019 is more... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Real pay prospects improve High-street spending put in a strong performance over Q3 as a whole, posting another chunky 1%-plus gain. Admittedly, retail sales have not been a particularly good barometer of overall consumer... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market adjustment has further to run The stagnation in the housing market is set to continue for the foreseeable future, as the combination of high house prices and rising mortgage rates, which are set to exceed 3% by 2020, hold the... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update House price crash unlikely A sharp drop in the share of homes seeing an increase in value over the past year is ringing alarm bells in some quarters. But the fact that housing demand is flat lining, rather than contracting and... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Markets right to fret about rising interest rates The fall in equity prices over the past couple of weeks is hard to square with the recent economic data, which suggest that GDP growth was 3.0% annualised in the third quarter. The sell-off appears... 18th October 2018 · 1 min read
