Capital Daily PMI weakness may not last, but upside for the euro still limited 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fortunes diverge in advanced economies Preliminary Markit PMIs provide tentative evidence that the euro-zone economy will lag behind advanced-economy peers in Q4, as growth holds up better in the US and Japan. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Mboweni puts growth ahead of fiscal targets The government’s decision to accept a wider deficit rather than tighten policy to meet previous targets will push up debt levels. But so long as bond yields don’t rise sharply (which we doubt is... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Further weakness in the Colombian peso ahead The Colombian peso has fallen by more than other Latin American currencies since August, and we expect a further underperformance over the next two years as oil prices fall, balance sheet... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Sterling withstands fears of no deal Brexit Although October’s EU summit has come and gone without a Brexit deal in place, implied probabilities of a “no deal” do not seem to have increased very much, which is reflected in the resilience of... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) Although narrow money growth rebounded in September, the Fed’s quantitative tightening will continue to exert downward pressure over the months ahead. Furthermore, signs are emerging that the Fed’s... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Oct.) The unexpectedly sharp decline in the Composite PMI in October left it pointing to the slowest pace of quarterly euro-zone GDP growth for two and a half years. 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Sep.) Mortgage lending is on a gentle downward trajectory, as mortgage approvals for house purchase fell for a third consecutive month in September. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation stabilised in September remaining unchanged at 4.9% y/y. We think that inflation has peaked and expect that the SARB will keep its key rate on hold at next month’s policy... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Riksbank on track for December interest rate hike Although the Riksbank left monetary policy unchanged today, it is still on track to begin raising interest rates in December. We think that the Bank will then tighten more quickly than investors... 24th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What to make of the global stock market sell-off Even stepping back from the volatility in stock markets around the world this week, global equities have clearly been weakening for a while, and are likely to do so again by the end of next year in... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Higher inflation to prompt Nordic rate rises The latest data suggest that underlying inflation is picking up in Sweden, Norway and Iceland and we expect the central banks in all three countries to respond by tightening monetary policy. In Sweden... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Update More tax cuts, less infrastructure spending It comes as no surprise that Chinese officials are responding to slower growth by easing fiscal policy. But an increased focus on tax cuts and the lack of a revival in off-budget borrowing suggests... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Budget speech will focus on deficit target South Africa’s new finance minister will probably announce further fiscal tightening in tomorrow’s Medium Term Budget Policy Statement in order to meet existing targets. This will likely placate... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM inflation pressures continue to build Price pressures have continued to strengthen in the emerging world. Our aggregate EM inflation measure jumped from 3.8% y/y in August to 4.2% y/y in September, its fastest pace since early 2016. The... 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Three key patterns in the latest drop in global equities 23rd October 2018 · 1 min read
