Global Central Bank Watch Equity sell-off unlikely to derail policy tightening Despite the recent plunge in equity prices, it looks highly likely that the Fed will raise interest rates again in December and then press ahead with two more rate hikes in the first half of 2019. But... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update The HTB extension will not give housebuilding a lift The extension of Help-to-Buy provides housebuilders with much needed policy certainty. But with no broader housing market recovery in sight and HTB eligibility to tighten, the industry nonetheless... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The weak tone of October’s GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence survey is not all that worrying, given that it appears to largely reflect seasonal factors. The bigger picture is that, so long as a Brexit deal... 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q3 Advanced) GDP growth in Taiwan slowed last quarter, mainly due to a sharp slowdown in export demand. With external headwinds set to increase, we think growth will continue to slow. 31st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Autumn Budget improves consumer outlook Things are finally looking up for consumers. Not only did yesterday’s Budget provide a welcome boost to households’ finances, but a recovery in real pay growth now appears to be taking root. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lead and aluminium differentials shouldn’t last The price of aluminium in Shanghai has been appreciably lower than on the LME for much of this year, while the reverse has been true for lead prices. Neither is sustainable and we think that global... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK budget not a sign of global policy loosening The fiscal “giveaway” announced by the UK government yesterday has generated a lot of headlines, but it is trivial in a global context, or compared to the US stimulus. For advanced economies overall... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth eases in Q3 Our EM GDP Tracker suggests that growth eased in Q3 on the back of weakness in Emerging Europe and Latin America. This seems to be due to a slowdown in consumer-facing sectors rather than industry. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Political risks back on the radar Political developments have re-emerged as a key risk to the region’s economic outlook in recent weeks. The economic fallout for Saudi Arabia from the Khashoggi scandal should be limited, at least in... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) After rising for eight consecutive quarters, the homeownership rate was unchanged in the third quarter. A lack of homes for sale, and higher interest rates weighing on home demand, help explain why... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q3, Prov.) The stronger-than-expected rebound in Mexican GDP in Q3, following its contraction in Q2, supports our view that growth will be better than most are anticipating in the coming quarters. Our forecast... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The apparent rebound in house price pressures, implied by the 0.6% m/m rise in August, reflects issues with the seasonal-adjustment process, rather than a sign that the slowdown in house price growth... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Amlo starting to show his true colours The direct impact on Mexico’s economy resulting from president-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s decision to scrap the Texcoco airport project will be small, but it is the clearest sign yet that... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy to slow further We think that global GDP growth slowed to around 3% annualised in the third quarter and that it will weaken further over the next year or so as the US and Chinese economies lose momentum. 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US equities and the economy: squaring the circle While this month’s slump in the US stock market can’t be blamed on bad economic news, it can be attributed – at least in part – to concerns about the prospects for economic growth. We think that these... 30th October 2018 · 1 min read
