Latin America Economics Update Bolsonaro’s victory: three things to watch now Comments from Brazil’s president-elect suggesting that the central bank should target the exchange rate have made headlines today but his post-election comments otherwise point to orthodox... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Theresa May: will she stay or will she go? Although Theresa May succeeded in clinging onto the premiership last week, the possibility of a leadership contest remains a distinct and worrying prospect both for the Brexit negotiations and... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth edges down, more weakness on the horizon Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth edged down last month and shows a more pronounced slowdown over the past year than the official GDP figures. We anticipate further weakness ahead as... 29th October 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank and Norges Bank signal rate rises ahead While both the Riksbank and the Norges Bank kept monetary policy unchanged this week, they signalled in their policy statements that they intend to raise interest rates in the coming months. With... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities caught up in market jitters Concerns about the outlook for demand, amid sharp declines in global equity prices, are weighing on the prices of most commodities. Even the oil market, which has been focussed on supply issues for... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly The Bolsonaro boost; Amlo, energy and populism The growing optimism in Brazil’s markets about a likely victory for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election this Sunday is increasingly difficult to square with events on the ground. In Mexico... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier external risks still a big concern A handful of the more vulnerable Frontier Markets, including Ukraine, Pakistan and Bahrain, have received (or are close to getting) IMF or bilateral funding, but external risks remain a key concern... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank aiming for at least three more hikes As well as hiking interest rates to 1.75% this week, the Bank of Canada explicitly confirmed that it intends to raise the policy rate back to its estimate of the neutral rate. We doubt it will make it... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB unfazed by weak surveys, Italy in the spotlight Euro-zone surveys published this week painted a pretty gloomy picture of the economy at the start of Q4. Some of that weakness probably reflected temporary factors and the ECB didn’t appear to be too... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Shifting policy mix means it’s all downhill from here The recent slump in stock markets is hard to square with the 3.5% annualised gain in third-quarter GDP that follows an even more impressive 4.2% rise in the second. Looking at the details of that... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) At 3.5% annualised, GDP growth remained unusually strong in the third quarter, thanks partly to this year’s fiscal stimulus, but there are signs that higher interest rates are beginning to have a... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Will tighter monetary policy cause the next big downturn? We expect the Fed’s monetary policy tightening cycle, which is now well underway, to contribute to a slowdown in the US economy during 2019-2020. And tighter monetary policy may also trigger downturns... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Outlook Precious metals to outshine industrials in 2019 An economic slowdown in China and less severe cuts to Chinese capacity should lead to lower industrial metals prices over the next year. In contrast, precious metals prices should gain from safe-haven... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Credit growth in advanced economies is likely to maintain a healthy pace despite quantitative tightening. Meanwhile, the recent spike in Italian government bond yields may increase firms’ borrowing... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Hammond’s luck is in, rates on hold, Brexit a hindrance The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will hand the Chancellor, Philip Hammond, a get-out-of-jail-free card by slashing its forecast for the deficit this year in Monday’s Budget. This will allow... 26th October 2018 · 1 min read
