Energy Update US energy prices overshoot This week’s dramatic moves in US energy prices reflect underlying fundamentals to some extent. Indeed, we remain positive on the outlook for natural gas prices in 2019, but see little upside for oil... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Oil price unlikely to be a key driver of financial assets in 2019 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Update Divergence in energy prices to continue In light of recent sharp energy price movements, it is worth re-iterating our outlook on prices. We expect that differing projections for demand and supply will prolong the deviation in the price of... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Markets, not the EU, could change Italy’s plans The small changes that Italy’s Government has made to its Budget are unlikely to placate the European Commission. So Italy looks set for greater budget oversight, which could eventually lead to... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The rebound in headline CPI inflation to 2.5% in October, from 2.3%, was mostly driven by a rise in gasoline prices that will be more than reversed over the next couple of months. The rest of the... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Oil price slump won’t cause repeat of 2015 Recent declines in oil prices will not by themselves cause a repeat of the 2015 economic slump. But they are a reason to doubt that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates repeatedly. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM Exports: Stable for now, but headed for a slowdown EM export growth remained strong in September, and probably picked up in October. But we think that a combination of escalating tariffs, lower commodity prices, and weaker economic growth in developed... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Commercial property investment (Oct.) The value of deals completed in October held up at a similar level to the previous two months. Although investment activity has been improving recently, this appears to reflect a recovery from the... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack EM equities likely to remain on the ropes Although the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index has recovered a little in the past couple of weeks, it is still below its level a month ago, and we suspect that it will fall much further by the end of... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Thailand set to raise rates in December The Bank of Thailand (BoT) left interest rates unchanged at 1.50% today, but the hawkish tone of the accompanying statement suggests that a rate hike is now only a matter of time, as the central bank... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update S. Africa: Economy probably escaped recession in Q3 September activity data released over the past week has been pretty downbeat. But conditions still seem to have improved in recent months, supporting our view that the economy returned to growth in Q3... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q3), IP (Sep.) & Employment (Q3) Q3’s slowdown in euro-zone GDP growth partly reflected temporary factors, so we remain optimistic that the economy will perform better in the coming quarters. This would allow the ECB to push ahead... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Sep.) While house price inflation edged up in September, the wider trend is still one of slowing growth. With house prices set to stay high relative to incomes, interest rates rising and house price... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Oct.) The consumer price figures support our view that inflation will probably be back at the 2% target next year. Nonetheless, this is predicated on a Brexit deal being struck. In the event of a “no deal”... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q3) Faster GDP growth in Poland and Hungary reinforces our view that central banks in both countries will begin to tighten monetary policy over the coming quarters. 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Consumer Prices (Oct.) The slight fall in Swedish inflation in October will not significantly influence the Riksbank’s decision on the timing of its first rate hike, which we still expect in December. Underlying inflation... 14th November 2018 · 1 min read
