Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A combination of higher domestic production, low refinery runs and a fall in exports contributed to the eighth consecutive weekly build in US crude stocks. If nothing else, the latest data bolster the... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q3 2018) Colombian GDP growth edged down from 2.8% y/y in Q2 to 2.7% y/y in Q3, and while the consensus expects growth to be stronger next year, we expect it to slow further in 2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage gains revised away The contraction in Japan’s economy in Q3 should prove short-lived. But the income data released alongside the GDP figures provide a more lasting reason for concern. The Bank of Japan had been able to... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Three reasons why QT won’t drive UST yields up much A reassessment of the prospects for interest rates will probably play a far bigger role than the Fed’s quantitative tightening (QT) in influencing Treasuries next year. Indeed, we expect the 10-year... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update China Industrial Metals Demand Monitor China’s latest activity and investment data paint a mixed picture of metals demand but we expect growth in consumption to slow until mid-2019. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) Looking beyond the 0.8% surge in headline retail sales, which was boosted by a price-related rise in gasoline sales, there are signs that underlying spending growth has begun to slow. Even accounting... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Oct.) Favourable base effects explain the pick-up in house price inflation in October. Prices only inched up on the month in seasonally-adjusted terms, and we suspect that house price inflation will slow... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Chances rise of an “orderly” no deal News that Theresa May could soon face a leadership challenge is the latest twist in the Brexit saga, but even if she survives, the key point is that the chances of her deal being passed by parliament... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Amazon HQ2s will give small boost to rental demand Amazon’s decision to base its new, secondary HQs in New York City and Northern Virginia does not mean that rental markets in these cities will enjoy the kind of surge seen in Seattle. At the margins... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Oil slumps, more political twists in Tunisia and Lebanon The drop in oil prices over the past week probably has further to run, which is a key reason why we think that the economic recovery in the Gulf will peak in the middle of 2019 and perhaps even sooner... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate hikes likely in Indonesia Today’s surprise 25 basis point interest rate hike by Bank Indonesia (BI) clearly indicates that the central bank’s main focus will be on supporting the currency and reducing the country’s external... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) October’s official retail sales figures were weaker than expected. But a continued acceleration in real earnings, if a Brexit deal is signed (which admittedly, is looking less likely by the minute)... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines: Today likely to be the last hike in the cycle With inflation set to drop back steadily over the coming months, we think today’s rate hike by the central bank of the Philippines (BSP) will be the last in the current cycle. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Uganda: Policy tightening to add headwinds to growth The Bank of Uganda will probably buck the regional trend next year by tightening policy further in response to a widening current account deficit. This will add to headwinds for economic growth. 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Autos likely to remain a drag on euro-zone equities We think that equities in the euro-zone will be caught in the crossfire of a stock market sell-off in the US next year, as the economy there slows. Our forecast is for the S&P 500 to fall by 14% in... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
