Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank still on course for December hike October’s weaker-than expected inflation data, published this week, are unlikely to deter the Riksbank from raising interest rates in the coming months, with a December hike most likely in our view... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slumping oil prices radically alter inflation outlook The collapse in crude oil prices over the past month has radically altered the outlook for headline consumer price inflation over the next 12 months. The stronger dollar will only add to the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe considers response to Italy The EU looks set to launch disciplinary proceedings against Italy, perhaps as soon as next week. But unless the situation in Italy escalates dramatically, the ECB is unlikely to respond. Instead, the... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) September’s rise in manufacturing sales capped off a strong quarter, but sales fell in volumes terms and the breakdown was hardly encouraging. While the Markit manufacturing PMI remained fairly high... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Philippines: inflation to drop, external risks building Recent dovish comments from the Deputy Governor of the central bank of the Philippines (BSP), Diwa Guinigundo, which mention falling inflation expectations and the BSP having the “the flexibility to... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russian oil output jumps, CEE economies gather pace The Russian government seems to have softened its line about cutting oil output to prop up prices this week, but given that output surged in October, any cuts would have a limited economic impact... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus How will Venezuela exit hyperinflation? In the 16 cases of hyperinflation since 1980, countries have either a) implemented “shock therapy”, b) dollarised or c) adopted a currency board in order to stabilise the economy, all of which seem... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly FDI defying trade tensions, property price data quirks The recent strength of direct investment into China is a reminder that, despite rising US tariff barriers, the country remains an attractive destination for foreign firms. Even so, policymakers... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Land reform escalates, SARB will hold rates next week South Africa’s government has taken a big step towards the expropriation of land without compensation, but fears that land reform will disrupt the economy are overblown. Meanwhile, given weak economic... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Watch Iron ore prices to weaken The price of iron ore has jumped on the back of expectations of weaker anti-pollution measures in China. In this Metals Watch we explain why we think higher prices will prove short-lived. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3) Hong Kong’s GDP growth slowed in Q3 to a two-year low in year-on-year terms, a trend we think will continue over the quarters ahead as headwinds from tightening monetary conditions and rising global... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s central bank shrugs off rising inflation The decision by Egypt’s central bank to keep its policy interest rate on hold confirmed that the MPC is paying more attention to weak underlying price pressures than the recent spike in headline... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Strength of Nordic activity surveys won’t last Economic growth in Switzerland, Sweden and Norway looks set to slow next year. In fact, survey evidence in Switzerland suggests that the economy has already shifted down a gear, with the KOF Economic... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Four questions and answers about leveraged loans Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen recently added to the growing chorus of concerns about the deterioration in corporate lending standards in relation to “leveraged loans” and the possibility that they... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Chances rise of an “orderly” no deal Brexit News that Theresa May could soon face a leadership challenge is the latest twist in the Brexit saga, but even if she survives, the key point is that the chances of her deal being passed by parliament... 15th November 2018 · 1 min read
