Commodities Watch Baltic Dry Index: It’s all about coal The Baltic Dry Index (BDI, a measure of shipping costs for the world’s dry bulk commodities) is often cited as a bellwether of economic growth. As such, the recent slump should be cause for concern... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine austerity drive a first step on long road ahead Having already hit the IMF’s primary deficit target for this year, Argentine policymakers have made impressive progress on fiscal tightening. But the squeeze so far accounts for only a third of the... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Congress goes after MbS, but further sanctions unlikely President Trump’s statement this week supporting US ties with Saudi Arabia suggests that attempts by Congress to force a firmer response to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi are unlikely to result in... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Oct.) Polish activity data for October were stronger than expected and suggest that the economy continued to motor along at a rapid pace at the start of Q4. 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What happens if the Brexit deal is rejected in Parliament? It is possible that Theresa May will persuade enough MPs to back her deal in Parliament, if only by arguing that the alternatives are even worse. But it is far from certain. In this Update, we set out... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Peru GDP (Q3 2018) The slowdown in Peruvian GDP growth from 5.4% y/y in Q2 to 2.3% y/y in Q3 is likely to be a blip, and growth should be stronger in Q4. Even so, growth is likely to be weaker than most expect over 2019... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What next for Asian growth? Growth slowed significantly in Emerging Asia last year, and is likely to remain fairly subdued over the coming year, with looser fiscal policy unlikely to offset the drag from weaker global demand and... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Gulf markets under pressure as oil slumps The recent plunge in oil prices is unlikely to cause major economic ructions in the Gulf, but it has taken a toll on local financial markets. Brent crude has plunged from $85pb at the start of October... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Precious Metals Update Silver surplus unlikely to last long The silver market has moved into its first meaningful surplus since 2010 as investor demand has plunged but we expect this will rebound next year, causing the surplus to dwindle and silver prices to... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What happens if the Brexit deal is rejected in Parliament? It is possible that Theresa May will persuade enough MPs to back her deal in Parliament, if only by arguing that the alternatives are even worse. But it is far from certain. In this Update, we set out... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Persistently high US oil production meant that crude stocks built again, despite a revival in refinery activity. What’s more, rising output of petroleum products means that we could start to see... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) The first rise in existing home sales for six months in October provided a rare piece of good housing market news. That doesn’t signal the end of the slowdown, but it does indicate that the strong... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Dec rate hike still on; Focus turns to Trump-Xi summit Growing concerns about the health of the global economy have prompted speculation that the Fed won’t hike interest rates as aggressively as previously believed. We suspect that the strength of the... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Cyclical stocks will probably keep living up to their name 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) Ignore the 4.4% fall in durable goods orders last month, it was mostly due to a drop back in defence orders. The genuine bad news here is the fact that underlying capital goods orders and shipments... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Oct.) Were the deterioration in the public finances in October to continue, the OBR would have to reverse some of the Budget upgrade to its forecast. Borrowing may well overshoot the OBR’s forecast this... 21st November 2018 · 1 min read
