China Chart Pack Swine fever hogs headlines, but impact still small The spread of African swine fever (ASF) to China’s leading pig-rearing province (Sichuan) last week is an alarming development. But despite its rapid expansion across the country (the disease has... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
India Economics Update RBI and government signal tentative truce The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government found common ground on some of the points of contention between them at the Bank’s board meeting yesterday. But key issues remain unresolved, and the... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Three-quarters of office markets overvalued The number of European property markets that appear to be overvalued continues to rise. With prime property yields still edging lower and government bond yields higher in Q3, the majority of markets... 20th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Households well placed to withstand higher rates With debt servicing costs still low and delinquency rates stable, households’ debt burdens are unlikely to emerge as a source of trouble, even as rising interest rates cause economic growth to slow... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Treasury rally is probably a sign of things to come in 2019 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update No sign of easing in deposit constraints The interest premium on high LTV lending is falling, as banks push to maintain lending flows in the face of weak housing demand. But we don’t expect that to trigger a fresh boom in lending. 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q3) The slowdown in Chilean GDP growth from 5.3% y/y in Q2 to 2.8% y/y in Q3 was driven in large part by a drop in export growth, but there are also signs that domestic demand is losing some steam. While... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How will Hungary’s National Bank tighten policy? We’ve argued for a long time that the monetary stance of the Hungarian National Bank (MNB) is far too accommodative, and it finally appears that tightening is on the horizon. The complex nature of the... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Property markets to weather economic challenges Capital value growth is expected to turn negative next year as rental increases remain subdued and property yields inch higher. But solid economic growth, combined with expectations of a gradual... 19th November 2018 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi: sanctions to have limited near-term impact The imposition of targeted sanctions by the US on Saudi Arabia in relation to the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is unlikely to hit local financial markets hard when they reopen on Sunday. After... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine political risk, Levy’s BNDES challenge Argentina’s Senate this week passed the government’s IMF-endorsed austerity budget for next year, but bond markets are starting to share our concerns over mounting political risks surrounding October... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit deal dead on arrival, earnings on the up With Theresa May’s EU deal already seemingly dead in the water and speculation rife that a no-confidence vote in her leadership is imminent, the chances of the UK heading for either a “no deal” Brexit... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie proves resilient to slump in oil prices The slump in oil prices this week is undoubtedly bad for the economy, but we’re not convinced by reports of an imminent 6% cut in oil production. While the loonie proved resilient to the drop in oil... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM growth holding up in early Q4, but set to slow The very early evidence suggests that EM GDP growth steadied at the start of Q4, as stronger export growth offset a slowdown in consumption. But activity is likely to weaken over the course of 2019. 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The subdued 0.1% m/m rise in industrial production in October was partly the result of temporary disruptions linked to Hurricane Michael, with manufacturing output continuing to expand at a healthy... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Energy in the headlines The recent divergence between oil and natural gas prices gathered momentum this week and although we think prices overshot, we remain of the view that the outlook for natural gas prices in 2019 is... 16th November 2018 · 1 min read
