UK Housing Market Update Weak outlook for housing supply Having surged in recent years, office to residential conversions have passed their peak. And conversions of other property types to residential are unlikely to soon make up the difference. Combined... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Oct.) Growth in global steel output accelerated in October to 5.8% y/y, but we expect it to slip back in the coming months as Chinese steel prices have slumped and there are mounting signs of weaker demand. 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss-EU relations freeze bodes ill for Swiss economy Sunday’s referendum on whether to place Swiss law above international law threatens to undermine treaty negotiations currently taking place between Switzerland and the EU. Failure to strike a deal on... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade war not to blame for Q3 slowdown A lot of commentary has blamed the slowdown in Asian GDP growth in the third quarter on the trade war between the US and China. We think these claims are misguided. The most obvious explanation for... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Nov.) November’s fall in the Composite PMI raises doubts about whether the economy will rebound after a weak Q3. This won’t be enough to stop the ECB from ending its asset purchases next month, but it... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB hikes rates, Tanzanian nuts, Ethiopian reforms Hawkish rhetoric from South Africa’s MPC suggests that another rate hike is likely in Q1. But the divided MPC’s appetite for further tightening will dissipate if – as we expect – inflation eases in... 23rd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Future Declaration won’t placate the Brexiteers The Political Declaration on the future relationship between the UK and the EU sketches out an “ambitious” Canada-style free trade agreement. However, the absence of a solution to the Northern Ireland... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Drop in oil prices unlikely to stop EM tightening The fall in oil prices over the past couple of months will drag down fuel inflation across the emerging world, but it probably won’t be enough to prompt policymakers to slow the pace of monetary... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update No deal Brexit would be a mixed bag for UK assets We think that the performance of UK financial assets would be varied in the event of a no deal Brexit, which has become increasing likely given the recent political chaos in Westminster. 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Will the central London shop boom end? After a prolonged period of strength, capital values in central London shops looks likely to slow. However, with the structural drivers of retail demand in London’s favour, we think that longer-term... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) The decline in Mexican inflation in the first half of November, which was in line with expectations, is unlikely to cause Banxico to soften its hawkish stance. Another 25bp interest rate hike (to 8.25... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Further stock market falls won’t drag on spending Japan’s stock market has already fallen by 11% since its recent peak in early October, and we expect further declines in 2019 as equity prices tumble in the US and the yen strengthens. But this won’t... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB hikes, but cycle will end soon Hawkish rhetoric suggests that policymakers at the SARB will follow today’s 25bp rate hike with another rate rise in Q1. But we think that inflation will soon peak, and that rates will ultimately fall... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Fall update fiscal projections too upbeat In his fall budget update, Finance Minister Bill Morneau more than used up the revenue windfall from stronger GDP growth and higher oil prices this year to increase incentives for business investment... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Strong construction activity propping up growth Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth held up fairly well in October, supported by robust construction activity. But with a property demand weak and signs that developers are becoming... 22nd November 2018 · 1 min read
