Global Economics Update Growing evidence that the cycle is turning Many of the financial and economic indicators that turn first around business cycle peaks are now flashing red in advanced economies. This is consistent with our view that the recent loss of momentum... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Key challenges facing Bangladesh after the election The Awami League led by Prime Minister Hasina is widely expected to win the general election on 30 th December. Low wages and a rapidly growing workforce mean Bangladesh should continue to pick up low... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: Rents and house price growth to diverge London’s house purchase and rental market will diverge next year. High house prices and rising interest rates will push down London house prices, and make a sustained recovery in transactions unlikely... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier economies losing steam Growth in frontier economies eased over the course of 2018 and we expect activity to be soft in 2019. At a regional level, we think that growth will slow further in frontier economies in Emerging Asia... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Year ending with growth slipping Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) points to a slowdown to near 5% growth in November. The government Economic Work Conference just concluded with a pledge to increase fiscal support and hints that... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP National Accounts (Q3) & Public Finances (Nov.) The economy isn’t as healthy as the unrevised 0.6% q/q rise in GDP in the third quarter suggests, but providing that a Brexit deal is reached, we think GDP growth will surprise on the upside next year... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Buhari’s budget, Nigerian bank consolidation, Ghana GDP Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari laid out his 2019 budget proposal this week, emphasising that he plans to keep key policies unchanged if he is re-elected in February. A big bank merger in the... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Dec.) December’s further fall GfK/NOP consumer confidence adds to the evidence that Brexit uncertainty is weighing on consumers’ willingness to spend. However, given the strength of the labour market, and... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Banxico continues to toe hawkish line The statement accompanying the Mexican central bank’s decision to raise interest rates by another 25bp was very hawkish, suggesting that the board is not done tightening yet. As such, we’re still... 21st December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Groundwork for a strong 2019 in place A boost to retail sales in November from Black Friday saw sales record their largest monthly increase since May. Nonetheless, as this followed two consecutive monthly falls, the retail sector will end... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should Brexit fog clear, risks to rates lie on the upside The thickening Brexit fog meant that the Monetary Policy Committee was always going to leave interest rates at 0.75% today and it looks as though that fog won’t fade for a few months. But should a... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Softness in bond markets pushes back yield rises Scandinavian property yields are now set to mark time in 2019 before rising from 2020, despite slowing rental growth. Copenhagen industrial is our top pick for the region. Total returns will be higher... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Property yields on hold in 2019 The euro-zone economy has weakened sharply in 2018. With growth unlikely to regain lost momentum, not only has the outlook for occupier markets deteriorated, but the possibility of the ECB delaying... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Nov.) Closures of Chinese smelters in December mean that November’s sharp increase in global aluminium production will not be repeated. Consequently, the recent surge in stocks could start to unwind. 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan: rates to be left unchanged next year Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left its policy rate on hold at 1.375% and gave little indication in its accompanying statement that it is in any hurry to adjust its policy setting anytime soon. We... 20th December 2018 · 1 min read
