Africa Economics Weekly SARB turns dovish, Nigerian opposition flip-flops on reforms Policymakers in South Africa toned down their hawkish language at their meeting this week, suggesting that rate hikes are now off the agenda. Elsewhere, Nigeria’s leading opposition politician laid... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Stimulus won’t prevent further economic slowdown Officials have stepped up policy support in response to faltering domestic momentum. But with credit now growing at the weakest pace in more than a decade, the economy will not stabilise until at... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investment in Europe shifting back to core strategies With plenty of capital still waiting to be deployed and attractive returns on offer, investment in European commercial property is likely to be strong again this year. However, a swing back towards... 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Lower costs, lower prices for aluminium in 2019 We think aluminium prices will drop from around $1,865 per tonne at present to $1,750 by end-2019 due to rising output and falling costs at a time of sluggish demand. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly Subdued outlook for exports The relative weakness of the rupee is doing little to boost India’s exporters, who are finding it hard to capitalise given a weakening of global demand and their own capacity constraints. 18th January 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economic Outlook A slow recovery GDP growth in Latin America should strengthen in the coming quarters, but the pace of the recovery will be weaker than most expect. Fiscal and monetary policy are likely to be tightened and external... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
ECB Watch More cautious, less confident At next week’s monetary policy meeting, the Governing Council of the ECB will have little option but to acknowledge that the downside risks to its forecasts have increased further since it last met in... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Earnings accelerate, but rents won’t follow suit The acceleration in earnings growth to close to a 10-year high in December will not boost rental growth. While stronger earnings will support rental demand, the large number of new apartments being... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors still seem too optimistic about S&P 500 earnings 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB abandons hawkish turn South African policymakers’ abrupt shift away from their previous hawkish rhetoric suggests that further rate hikes are now unlikely. We think that attention will soon turn to cuts; we expect a 25bp... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Dec.) Following the decision by OPEC and its allies to reduce output for six months from January, the latest data showed OPEC’s commitment to remove much of the apparent excess supply in the oil market. But... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi equities rally, strikes in Tunisia, Lebanese debt Saudi Arabia’s stock market has rallied over the past week or so, but we expect this to go into reverse. Meanwhile, public sector strikes taking place in Tunisia today highlight the scale of the... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Central Bank Watch Norges Bank to signal March rate hike At its meeting on 24th January, the Norges Bank is likely to reiterate that it expects to raise interest rates in March, taking the key policy rate to 1.0%. But we think that its tightening cycle will... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update UK political chaos not a big threat to global economy To the outside world, it looks as though the UK is descending into chaos over Brexit. But while it is true that the UK political situation is in meltdown, its economy is holding up reasonably well... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Which EM currencies are in the firing line in 2019? We expect EM currencies to weaken against the US dollar in 2019, with the South African rand and Colombian peso likely to fall by more than most. The Argentine peso and Turkish lira will probably be... 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q4) Credit availability for both commercial and residential property tightened in Q4, and with Brexit uncertainty likely to be extended, that trend looks set to persist. 17th January 2019 · 1 min read
