Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1 2018) Nigeria’s economic recovery lost momentum in Q1, but we still think that growth will strengthen later this year. Higher oil revenues should provide a big boost to incomes in Q2. 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Long-delayed budget tells us little The 2018 budget finally passed by Nigerian legislators yesterday will have little effect on fiscal policy. Expenditure – particularly on capital projects – will fall far below the government’s... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply in April, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in June. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply last month, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 12.00% by year end... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts likely later in Q2 Today’s Nigerian MPC press conference supported our view that policymakers will cut rates later this year. We think that the key rate will fall from 14.00% – at which it was left today – to 13.00% in... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s March manufacturing PMI was surprisingly weak. We retain the view, however, that growth remained strong in Q1. They survey has, after all, given misleadingly negative readings recently. 3rd April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) Slower inflation and a political breakthrough have opened the way to interest rate cuts in Nigeria. We expect that policymakers will lower their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in Q2. 14th March 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2017) The weaker-than-expected pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth in Q4, to 1.9% y/y, masked an encouraging improvement in the non-oil sector. There are signs that the recovery gathered pace at the start of... 27th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Political drama overshadows gradual recovery Attention over the past month has focused on political developments in South Africa and (to an admittedly lesser extent) Ethiopia. After refusing to heed repeated calls to reign, South African... 26th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rebound is underway Nigeria’s economy finally exited recession in the middle of 2017, but growth remained very weak. The latest figures, however, suggest that the economy accelerated going into the start of this year... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Angola: Prepare for turbulence Since his election late last year, President João Lourenço has embarked on a surprisingly bold programme of economic reforms. In this Watch we argue that President Lourenço’s reform plans will help to... 25th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Dec.) Nigerian inflation slipped to a 15-month low in December. We expect that policymakers will keep rates on hold in January and March, but will cut rates by 100bp in May as inflation eases further. 16th January 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: First thoughts on the 2018 budget draft The first draft of Nigeria’s 2018 budget suggests that the government will – yet again – set itself a spending target that is unlikely to be met. Borrowing will remain pretty limited, but the shift... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Looking beyond the politics Attention this month has focused on political stories in Kenya, South Africa, and Angola. We will continue to cover these issues in other publications. While economic data released over the past month... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Markets mispricing interest rate moves Market expectations towards South African interest rates have shifted markedly in recent weeks. While a rate cut next month is no-longer likely, we think that the markets have moved too far, and are... 20th October 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Deficit within target, but finances weak Nigeria’s budget deficit is, perhaps surprisingly, smaller than the government had expected. But this comes at a significant economic cost. And even the country’s small shortfall may prove hard to... 17th October 2017 · 1 min read
