Africa Economics Weekly Naira rumours, South Africa recovery, Ethiopia reforms Despite this week’s mixed messages from Nigerian officials, we doubt that the country’s FX system will be reformed anytime soon. In South Africa, the latest activity data suggest that the economy... 14th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Easing cycle will restart in Q3 Nigerian policymakers voted to hold their key rate at 13.50% today, but the governor’s suggests that they will continue to loosen policy later this year. The governor frequently stressed the need for... 21st May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1) Nigerian GDP growth slowed to 2.0% y/y in Q1, strengthening our view that the economy will perform worse than most expect over the course of 2019. We think that today’s weak result will encourage... 20th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa stumbles, Unemployment rises, Kenya bond sale Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted by about 2% in Q1. Figures out next week, by contrast, will probably show that growth accelerated in Nigeria... 17th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak mandate for Ramaphosa, Another term for Emefiele The comparatively poor showing by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ANC in Wednesday's election will probably weaken the reformist leader in his on-going struggle with intra-party rivals... 10th May 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Emefiele’s legacy As CBN Governor Godwin Emefiele’s term draws to a close, we’ve taken a look at how his controversial decisions worsened Nigeria’s recent economic crisis. Given President Muhammadu Buhari’s views on... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria remained strong in March, and will probably stay above target over the coming months. Even so, we expect that will probably continue their controversial loosening cycle. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Fiscal fragilities building Nigeria’s fiscal position is much weaker than widely believed. Government plans to focus on foreign borrowing will add to currency risk. And evidence suggests that the central bank is helping to... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rate cut (another) hit to CBN credibility Today’s rate cut was another signal that Nigerian policymakers are prioritising monetary stimulus over their own inflation target. We doubt that this cut – which will probably be the first in a cycle... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa slowdown, SARB, no word from Buhari Data published this week showed continued weakness in South Africa’s economy at the start of the year which, coming alongside soft inflation, may bring interest rate cuts onto the table sooner than we... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Growth will slow in 2019 The first figures from Q1 support our view that economic growth in Nigeria will be slower than most expect this year. Rather than accelerating, weakness in the oil sector, tight fiscal policy, and... 12th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Nigeria: Buhari win sets stage for slow growth Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari’s clear win in last weekend’s election will almost certainly result in the continuation of his interventionist economic policies, which are widely seen to have... 28th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Early results point to narrow win for Buhari Results released so far suggest that Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari probably won Saturday’s election. Another term for Mr. Buhari would mean the continuation of his growth-sapping policies. 26th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria actually goes to the polls, South Africa budget History suggests that, if Nigeria’s delayed election on Saturday passes peacefully, the stock market is likely to see a temporary bounce. But over a longer time horizon, global factors are likely to... 22nd February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria goes to the polls, South Africa awaits budget speech Nigeria’s presidential election on Saturday offers a choice between two clearly distinct policy options. The result will be close, with the winner probably announced on Monday. Elsewhere, South Africa... 15th February 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4) Nigeria’s economy accelerated to 2.4% y/y in Q4, but momentum in the non-oil sector remained very weak. Low oil prices will weigh on growth in 2019, but the longer-term outlook depends heavily on the... 12th February 2019 · 1 min read
