Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC hints at shift to more orthodox policymaking Today’s MPC statement suggested that policymakers are – at the very least – considering a shift towards tightening monetary conditions. The communication was, as ever, a bit unclear. We do not expect... 21st March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Feb.) February’s inflation figures offer the first sign that inflation has peaked. We expect that price growth will weaken this year, but will remain above the CBN’s target. 14th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Talking the talk Nigeria’s Economic Growth & Recovery Plan (which was released this afternoon) provides a refreshingly honest analysis of the country’s economic problems & outlines a variety of sensible reforms. We’re... 7th March 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Grim end to the year, but worst now behind us Nigeria’s economy contracted by just 1.3% in Q4 2016, confirming our view that the slump bottomed out in Q3. Growth will pick up in 2017, and may even be a bit stronger than most expect. he National... 28th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: New FX rate, no sign of full devaluation yet The introduction of another official FX rate in Nigeria is not (as many seem to suspect) the prelude to abolishing FX controls. Over the longer term, however, we still expect that a weakening of the... 23rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria over the worst, but recovery will be slow Nigeria’s successful Eurobond issue late last week provided another sign that the economy is over the worst of the recent downturn. Hopes for a quick recovery, however, are likely to be disappointed. 13th February 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: latest data confirm very weak growth in late 2016 Data published over the past month provided further evidence that economic growth in the region was very sluggish towards the end of last year. Q3 GDP figures did, admittedly, show that growth picked... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Nigeria and Saudi Arabia pull OPEC output lower OPEC oil production fell last month, but this was partly due to temporary disruptions in Nigeria. Meanwhile, the group expects non-OPEC output to increase this year. 18th January 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Naira fix will prove unsustainable in 2017 Nigerian policymakers seem committed to the FX policies that have strangled their country’s economy. The situation is, however, unsustainable. We expect that the currency will be devalued again in... 21st December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Disappointing end to a painful year The latest figures from across Africa suggest that most economies in the region continued to perform poorly at the end of 2016. Activity data from South Africa suggest that the region’s most... 15th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Ambitious budget unlikely to be realised President Muhammadu Buhari’s latest budget proposal is overly ambitious; we expect that both spending and revenue will disappoint. While Mr. Buhari presented his spending plan as way of lifting the... 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch Angola, Libya and Nigeria push OPEC’s output higher Further increases in output from Libya and Nigeria will make it more difficult for OPEC to reach their output quota of 32.5m bpd. 14th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Tepid recovery as “Big Three” continue to struggle We expect that economic growth in Africa will pick up a bit in 2017 after a disastrous result in 2016. But the region’s recovery will be very weak, largely because of the poor performance of Nigeria... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Trump effect limited, but Zuma rocks the rand The effect of the US election result on African currency and equity markets seems to have been fleeting. In South Africa, though, the rand has closely tracked the possibility that Jacob Zuma could be... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Recovery yet to gain traction While we still expect that most African economies will pick up steam in 2017, the latest figures suggest that the region’s economic downturn has still yet to bottom out. Major economies across Africa... 29th November 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier financial markets sell off, but losses limited Frontier financial markets came under pressure in the wake of Donald Trump’s US election victory, with currencies weakening against the dollar and bond yields rising. The losses have been relatively... 28th November 2016 · 1 min read
