Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) The slight increase in Nigerian inflation in May, to 12.4% y/y, will probably be followed by further rises over the coming months, but we still think that more interest rate cuts lie in store later... 17th June 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian monetary easing: better late than never We think that today’s 100bp interest rate cut by the Nigerian central bank, to 12.50%, will be followed by further loosening as economic recovery proves weaker than the central bank expects. We have... 28th May 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: what next for the naira? We think that Nigerian policymakers will have to allow the naira to weaken further in order to address mounting strains in the balance of payments. But hopes of a unified, flexible exchange rate... 19th May 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria’s budget proposal, SA economy reawakening The amendments to the 2020 budget approved by Nigeria’s cabinet this week suggest that the government is not yet fully facing up to the fiscal damage caused by the coronavirus. Elsewhere, flickers of... 15th May 2020 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update A closer look at the vulnerabilities in Nigerian banks One consequence of the current crisis is that bad loans in Nigeria’s banking sector are likely to rise sharply. While the government would surely respond to problems at individual banks with capital... 28th April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar. 2020) The slight rise in Nigerian inflation in March, to 12.3% y/y, is unlikely to prevent policymakers from cutting their key rate in May to ease the country’s economic pain caused by the coronavirus. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil shock forces CBN to accept inevitable The controlled devaluation of the naira will help to preserve Nigeria’s scarce FX reserves and encourage foreign investment inflows. Given, however, that officials opted to maintain a dual-track... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2019) Growth in Nigeria ticked up a notch in Q4, but there is still no sign of a broad-based economic recovery. We expect that the authorities will continue to enact unconventional stimulus policies later... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Interest Rate Nigerian policymakers left their key rate unchanged today, preferring to use unconventional policy rather than rate cuts to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these measures will fail... 26th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s non-oil economy strengthened a touch in Q3, but headline growth remained very weak. Without significant policy change, we expect that the economy will continue to struggle in 2020. 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Oct.) Food prices pushed up Nigerian inflation in October, suggesting that policymakers will leave their key rate on hold next week. Monetary conditions will probably still be loosened using unconventional... 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Sep.) Inflation in Nigeria picked up to 11.2% y/y in September, but we still expect that policymakers will cut their key rate in November. If policymakers opt to leave the rate on hold, they will probably... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Budget plan underlines fiscal problems Nigeria’s latest budget plan has strengthened our view that the fiscal position is unsustainable and that the country will face some kind of debt crisis within five years. 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in August, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate in November. 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy stuck in second gear Disappointing Q2 GDP figures out today underlined the weakness of Nigeria’s economy. This supported our below-consensus view that growth will remain trapped at around 2% in 2019 and 2020. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
