Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Election options come into focus Nigeria’s February 2019 election will offer a stark policy choice between stability under President Muhammadu Buhari and liberalising reforms under opposition leader Atiku Abubakar. While the vote... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: MPC shifts tone (again) Nigerian policymakers struck a hawkish tone today, but we doubt that rate hikes are on the cards. Inflationary pressures are probably not as worrying as Governor Emefiele seems to believe. Kenyan... 25th September 2018 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier recovery remains on track Frontier financial markets have endured a torrid 2018, but this hasn’t been accompanied by a deterioration in the hard activity data. Admittedly, growth in the largest frontier economy, Nigeria... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Activity data suggest weak growth in Q2 GDP figures due next week will probably show that growth in Nigeria remained weak in Q2. We think that growth was probably about 2% y/y, essentially in line with the previous two quarters. 21st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa & Nigeria Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The pick-up in South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July supports our view that the economy will strengthen in the second half of this year. 1st August 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Pre-election inflation fears misplaced Widespread fears that Nigeria’s upcoming election will spur inflation are not supported by the available evidence. We think that price pressures will continue to ease over the rest of this year. 25th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN muddies the water Nigeria’s MPC left its key rate on hold at 14.00%, and hawkish language has led us to remove the rate cuts that we’d previously pencilled in for Q4. Confusingly, the governor also announced unorthodox... 24th July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed in June, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. While policymakers will keep their key rate on hold tomorrow, they will probably cut later this... 23rd July 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa employment, Nigeria targets imports again This week’s South African employment figures were less positive than they appear at first glance. Elsewhere, official economic growth slowed in Ghana in Q1. New poverty estimates caused a storm in... 29th June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SARB under pressure, Nigerian budget signifies little Markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing in rate hikes in South Africa. Policymakers have explicitly said that they will not react to currency moves until they see a lasting effect on... 22nd June 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers hold off, will cut later this year A surprisingly hawkish MPC statement suggest that Nigerian policymakers (who held their key rate at 14.00% today) will keep rates on hold for most of this year. But they will still probably cut rates... 22nd May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q1 2018) Nigeria’s economic recovery lost momentum in Q1, but we still think that growth will strengthen later this year. Higher oil revenues should provide a big boost to incomes in Q2. 21st May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Long-delayed budget tells us little The 2018 budget finally passed by Nigerian legislators yesterday will have little effect on fiscal policy. Expenditure – particularly on capital projects – will fall far below the government’s... 17th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Apr.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply in April, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 13.00% in June. 15th May 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Mar.) Inflation in Nigeria slowed sharply last month, and we think that it will continue to ease over the coming months. This will prompt policymakers to cut their key rate from 14.00% to 12.00% by year end... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rates on hold, but cuts likely later in Q2 Today’s Nigerian MPC press conference supported our view that policymakers will cut rates later this year. We think that the key rate will fall from 14.00% – at which it was left today – to 13.00% in... 4th April 2018 · 1 min read
