Africa Economics Update Oil producers heading into deeper crises The plunge in global oil prices has raised the risk of much steeper contractions in output in African oil producers, sharper currency falls, sovereign debt restructurings and problems at local banks. 22nd April 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Mar. 2020) The slight rise in Nigerian inflation in March, to 12.3% y/y, is unlikely to prevent policymakers from cutting their key rate in May to ease the country’s economic pain caused by the coronavirus. 21st April 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Oil shock forces CBN to accept inevitable The controlled devaluation of the naira will help to preserve Nigeria’s scarce FX reserves and encourage foreign investment inflows. Given, however, that officials opted to maintain a dual-track... 23rd March 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2019) Growth in Nigeria ticked up a notch in Q4, but there is still no sign of a broad-based economic recovery. We expect that the authorities will continue to enact unconventional stimulus policies later... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Interest Rate Nigerian policymakers left their key rate unchanged today, preferring to use unconventional policy rather than rate cuts to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these measures will fail... 26th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s non-oil economy strengthened a touch in Q3, but headline growth remained very weak. Without significant policy change, we expect that the economy will continue to struggle in 2020. 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Oct.) Food prices pushed up Nigerian inflation in October, suggesting that policymakers will leave their key rate on hold next week. Monetary conditions will probably still be loosened using unconventional... 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Sep.) Inflation in Nigeria picked up to 11.2% y/y in September, but we still expect that policymakers will cut their key rate in November. If policymakers opt to leave the rate on hold, they will probably... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Budget plan underlines fiscal problems Nigeria’s latest budget plan has strengthened our view that the fiscal position is unsustainable and that the country will face some kind of debt crisis within five years. 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in August, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate in November. 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy stuck in second gear Disappointing Q2 GDP figures out today underlined the weakness of Nigeria’s economy. This supported our below-consensus view that growth will remain trapped at around 2% in 2019 and 2020. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria FX ban: Little price effect, big hit CBN credibility The Nigerian president’s call to exclude all food importers from the official FX market will probably be poorly-enforced and have little effect on inflation. But the government’s ever-expanding... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN puts faith in unconventional policy (again) Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 13.50% today, and indicated that they will rely on unconventional policy tools to boost lending over the coming quarters. These are, however, unlikely to... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN rules unlikely to boost lending New regulations from the central bank will probably do little to encourage lending to the private sector. So long as government bond yields remain elevated, banks will prefer to park their money in... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Jun.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in June, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate next week. 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (May) Nigerian inflation remained, at 11.4% y/y, above the central bank’s target range in May, but policymakers will probably still cut their key interest rate in July. 17th June 2019 · 1 min read
