Commodities Weekly The weaker dollar bolsters commodities This week started on a positive note for industrial commodities with strong June activity and investment data out of China. A weaker US dollar was also supporting commodity prices, more generally... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Energy Update Four key risks facing the oil market The oil market’s attention is firmly on rising production in the US and the outlook for stocks there. However, there are a number of risks elsewhere which are potentially being overlooked and which... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Monetary policy easing cycle is getting into gear Policymakers across Africa are set to loosen monetary policy sooner and more dramatically than most think. We expect cuts in South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, & elsewhere over the coming months. 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jun.) The slowing of Nigerian inflation in June will soon prompt policymakers to loosen monetary policy. Cuts will come faster than the consensus currently expects. 17th July 2017 · 1 min read
OPEC Watch OPEC output surges again Another surge in production in Nigeria and Libya boosted total OPEC production last month. Looking ahead, the group expects non-OPEC supply growth to accelerate next year. 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery in top economies will drive African rebound We expect that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will accelerate over the coming years as the three largest economies in the region – South Africa, Nigeria and Angola – recover from recent recessions... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Currencies struggle, but equities remain strong Most African currencies weakened in June, though Nigeria’s was a key exception. The naira will probably stay pretty stable on both the official and parallel rates. 29th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Key economies pick up in Q2 After a very poor start to the year, most of Africa’s larger economies bounced back at the start of Q2. South African activity data suggest that the region’s most industrialised economy returned to... 23rd June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (May) We think that the easing of inflation in Nigeria, which slipped to 16.3% y/y in May, will pave the way for looser monetary policy this year. 15th June 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Rand driven by politics, most markets strengthen South Africa’s ongoing political drama caused the rand to wobble this month, but the currency soon stabilised. Equities across the region performed well, with Nigerian stocks leading the charge. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Zuma, health concerns put politics centre stage Events over the past month have raised questions about the positions of the presidents of Sub-Saharan Africa’s three largest economies. Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari missed a key speech... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN holds rates, but hints that cuts are coming Nigeria’s central bank held its key rate on hold again, but we expect that policymakers will cut rates later this year as inflation slows and the economy remains weak. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Recession continues, but non-oil GDP picks up Nigeria’s economy continued to contract in Q1, albeit at a slowing rate. Fading problems in the oil sector and the improvement of the non-oil sector suggest that growth will return in Q2. 23rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Narrow budget deficit obscures fiscal strains Despite some fiscal loosening, we expect that Nigeria’s federal budget deficit will be just 2.5% of GDP in 2017. But this measure provides a misleading sense of the country’s fiscal health. 19th May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria & Angola: Light at the end of the tunnel After a year of contraction, the economies of Nigeria and Angola are finally recovering. Growth will stay weak by recent standards, but will probably outpace overly-bearish consensus expectations. 3rd May 2017 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Policymakers playing catch-up after de facto devaluation Recent reforms to Nigeria’s FX regime have further complicated an already convoluted system, which includes a variety of exchange rates. In this Watch, we provide an overview of the state of the FX... 29th March 2017 · 1 min read
