US Housing Market Update Latest data offer little optimism for apartment rents The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2024) The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we... 21st May 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The fourth consecutive 0.1% m/m average increase in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in April will give the Bank confidence that the further easing in core inflation is being... 21st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US shale boom approaching a peak Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Heading for a weaker second quarter The further evidence of softer activity this week might not be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in June, but they add to our sense that rate cuts are coming very soon. 17th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation slowly easing; activity softens The Biden administration announced an increase in tariffs on hi-tech & green-related goods imports from China this week, but they will have little impact on economic activity or inflation. Otherwise... 17th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily “Big tech” stocks may be the crown jewel again before long Although the “big-tech” sectors have been out of favour compared to others so far this quarter, we expect them to regain the lead before long and help the US stock market outperform those elsewhere. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output in April , together with the downward revision to the March gain, from 0.5% to 0.2%, continues the run of weaker activity data and will further solidify... 16th May 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Housing Starts (Apr. 2024) The modest rebound in housing starts in April confirmed that the slump the month before was a weather-related blip. But the recovery wasn’t as strong as we had anticipated, which potentially casts... 16th May 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada Housing Watch (May 2024) The April housing market data show that the spring season is shaping up to be vastly different than last year, with sales dropping back despite higher listings and house prices unchanged. This has... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US inflation relief for both Treasuries & equities Better news on US inflation over the past couple of days has provided further relief for bond and equity markets, and supports our forecast that Treasury yields will fall back a bit more over the... 15th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Update What the latest US tariffs mean for the global economy We held an online Drop-In session today to discuss the Biden administration’s new tariffs on goods from China. This Update answers several of the questions that we received about the direct effects of... 15th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US Retail Sales (Apr. 2024) We would caution against jumping to the conclusion that consumers are starting to crack under high interest rates, despite the disappointing retail sales data for April, as some payback always seemed... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (Apr.) The slightly more modest 0.3% m/m increase in core CPI in April was even better than it looked, particularly given that we already know the PPI components that feed into the Fed’s preferred PCE... 15th May 2024 · 2 mins read
