US Rapid Response

Retail Sales (May)

The soft May retail sales data support our view that, after a disappointing first quarter, GDP growth remains a little lacklustre in the second quarter too. Our forecast now stands at 1.9%.

18th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Update

Housing market still struggling for momentum

The housing market was soft in May, with sales and prices edging down, but we expect conditions to improve over the rest of the year as the Bank of Canada cuts interest rates further and mortgage...

17th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Households deleveraging only slowly

The household debt-to-income ratio fell again in the first quarter, albeit because incomes continued to rise at a faster pace than debt levels. Although the aggregate situation is slowly improving...

14th June 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Fed split, but better data point to two rate cuts

The Fed’s updated projections indicated that a slim majority of officials favour fewer than two interest rate cut this year but, in response to the soft May CPI, PPI and import price data, the markets...

14th June 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (June 2024)

The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to a seven-month low of 65.6 in June, from 69.1, suggests that households are now struggling more under the weight of higher...

14th June 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Apr. 2024)

14th June 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Treasury yields may not push JGB ones down further

Although falling Treasury yields may continue to exert some downward pressure on Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, we don’t think that will drive them much lower by the end of the year.

13th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Markets Update

Why we think the 10-year Treasury yield will fall further

We are retaining our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 4.0% by the end of this year. That reflects our expectation that the Fed will pursue a slightly looser conventional monetary...

13th June 2024 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

Producer Prices (May)

With the May producer price data also coming in weaker than expected, we now estimate that the core PCE deflator increased by only 0.11% m/m last month, which would take the annual core PCE inflation...

13th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Economics Update

Fed projects one cut this year, but notes inflation progress

The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the...

12th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Policy Announcement (June 11-12)

The median FOMC projection now shows only one 25bp rate cut this year, but it was a relatively close run thing. Four officials expect no cut this year, a further seven anticipate one cut, while the...

12th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

We see a bit more room down for Treasury yields

Today’s release of the US CPI data for May offered some respite in markets after last Friday’s stronger-than-expected May payrolls data. On balance, we continue to anticipate that the Fed will...

12th June 2024 · 4 mins read

US Rapid Response

Consumer Prices (May)

Core CPI increased by a more modest 0.2%m/m in May and, although we still need to see the PPI data tomorrow, it looks like core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, increased by significantly...

12th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Property values on course to fall by more than 25%

The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from...

11th June 2024 · 21 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

O ur Canada Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. As the economy is set for a sustained period of below potential growth and core inflation is on...

10th June 2024 · 0 mins read