Capital Daily Four key points on Trump & financial markets Recent events have increased the perceived likelihood of another Trump presidency and, in the process, provided a clearer steer on how market participants expect such an outcome to affect key... 15th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Manufacturing Sales (May 2024) The continued rise in manufacturing sales and new orders suggests that the sector gained some momentum in the second quarter. However, we expect that strength to fade this quarter. 15th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Rate cuts will offer relief to housing this year The latest housing market data paint an almost ideal picture for the Bank of Canada, with activity improving, but little sign of a surge in house prices that could derail the downward trend in core... 12th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the market fallout from that inflation print We think the rally in Treasuries and pullback in the dollar since US CPI data was released yesterday have further to run. But we doubt the big rotation within equities yesterday is a sign of things to... 12th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Core inflation pressures rapidly easing Chair Jerome Powell told Congress this week that the Fed is looking for “more good data” to strengthen its confidence that inflation will return to 2%. That is exactly what the June CPI and PPI... 12th July 2024 · 7 mins read
US Rapid Response Uni. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul. 2024) The further decline in the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in July adds to the evidence that consumers are increasingly struggling with high interest rates. Although the link between... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response Producer Prices (June) Ignore the fact that core PPI increased by a slightly bigger-than-expected 0.4% m/m in June and that May was revised to a 0.3% rise from unchanged. The PPI components that feed into the Fed’s... 12th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Wage growth set to slow Still elevated wage growth is partly due to earlier large gains in public sector pay, which are unlikely to be repeated. There are tentative signs that private sector wage growth is slowing, and the... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update How could Trump influence the Fed? It is not clear that Donald Trump, if elected, would gain much from trying to force Fed Chair Jerome Powell out of the role only a year before his term expires anyway. Trump might instead focus his... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Could the economy burst this bubble? Another fairly encouraging US CPI report seems unlikely to blow the buoyant S&P 500 far off course given the implications for Fed policy. Indeed, it strengthens the case for a rate cut in September. 11th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response Consumer Prices (June) The muted 0.1% m/m increase in core CPI in June strengthens the case for a September rate cut although, while a lot still depends on the PPI data due tomorrow, our initial estimate is that the core... 11th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Corporate bonds likely to keep trailing equities We think that corporate bonds will continue to underperform equities, as credit spreads are already low, economic growth moderates, and equities benefit more from enthusiasm about AI. 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial supply risks look most pointed in Phoenix The legacy of the post-pandemic industrial construction boom is now being felt in rising supply across most metros. With the demand outlook stabilising, we think the evolution of supply will shape... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Chair Powell Testimony to Congress Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s opening statement for his congressional testimony today offers few clues about the potential timing of interest rate cuts, with the key line that the Fed is still looking for... 9th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields could fall further still, but not the dollar We expect Treasury yields to fall a bit further, but we doubt that will lead to a weaker dollar. 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
