US Economics Weekly

Trump tosses first social media hand grenade

Here we go again. This week President-elect Donald Trump lobbed his first social media hand grenade since the election – threatening to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico if both countries didn...

27th November 2024 · 7 mins read

US Rapid Response

Income & Spending (Oct. 2024)

The 0.27% m/m rise in the core PCE deflator in October was a little lower than we feared based on the earlier CPI and PPI data, but still confirms that prices rose at an above-target rate for the...

27th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Event

Drop-In: US climate policy under Trump: The IRA, Musk and 'drill, baby, drill'

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What will a second Trump presidency mean for the green transition? Should investors and companies expect an across-the-board rollback on regulation?

Commodities Update

How to think about US tariffs on oil imports

This is an updated version of a report originally published on 27th November, 2024. US tariffs on oil imports from Canada and Mexico would probably result in lower oil output in Canada and Mexico and...

27th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Rapid Response

GDP (Q3 2nd Est), Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Oct)

October’s income and spending data, due at 10am ET today, could also affect our estimate but, for now, the big drop back in goods imports in October means that we have forth-quarter GDP growth...

27th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed FOMC Minutes (Nov 6-7)

The minutes of the Fed’s early-November FOMC meeting, when it slowed the pace of policy loosening with a smaller 25bp cut, tell us little about whether to expect another smaller quarter-point cut at...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of the revival of US small-caps

We aren’t convinced the outperformance of US small-cap (SC) equities since Donald Trump’s victory on 5th November sets the tone for the first half of 2025. We doubt they will start to fare better than...

26th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% rise in house prices in September reflects the market picking up momentum over the summer as mortgage rates fell. However, timelier indicators, like the sales-to...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Oct. 2024)

The large fall in new home sales in October was to be expected given the disruption from hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the rise in mortgage rates last month. While sales should rebound this...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

​​Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line​

President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the...

26th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of another yield curve inversion

The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields has ‘inverted’ again, partly because the nomination of Bessent as US Treasury secretary has eased fiscal concerns. But we forecast the curve to...

25th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 24)

All-property values are down 18% from their mid-2022 peaks. And with appraisal-based cap rates still set to tick higher, we expect further small falls in values. That should take the peak-to-trough...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Where are the residential construction layoffs?

Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home...

25th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

It's Trump's world, his cabinet just live in it

Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding what policies president-elect Donald Trump will enact during his second term, there is a temptation to read a lot into his Cabinet nominations, but we...

25th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Focus

How to think about tariffs

In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal...

25th November 2024 · 21 mins read