Event

Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond

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Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose massive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada are a reminder that this is a very real threat to the global economic outlook.

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank likely to revert to 25bp cuts

The recent stronger price and activity data, along with the announcement this week of a sales-tax break over the festive period and stimulus cheques to come next year, means we now think the Bank of...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Deregulation unlikely to be a game changer

We remain sceptical that deregulation will provide a disinflationary boost to the economy’s supply side and we suspect that any reduction in government spending or headcount would turn out to be...

22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Tariffs & re-routing commodity trade; natural gas soars

The election victory of Donald Trump and the prospect of renewed trade restrictions has naturally sharpened attention on the potential impact of tariffs on trade flows, including on commodity trade...

22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Sep. 2024)

The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October...

22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

What have we learnt about Trump’s climate policy?

Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

Bonds & Equities

Taking stock of the US election fallout

With the dust settling on Trump’s victory earlier this month, this Update takes stock of what has happened across currencies, bonds, and equities; the reasons for these moves; and what we think will...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Existing Home Sales (Oct. 2024)

The modest rise in existing home sales in October reflects the earlier drop in mortgage rates over the summer and is unlikely to be repeated, as borrowing costs have since rebounded to 7%.

21st November 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Is Nvidia a sign that the AI boost for US equities is over?

We don’t think the S&P 500’s AI tailwind has run out of puff yet, despite the seemingly lukewarm market reaction to Nvidia’s latest profit result.

21st November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Which retail cities have performed best?

Retail has suffered some severe blows over the last decade, but the nadir for the sector seems to have passed and for some time we have been talking about recovery ahead, albeit a weak one. In this...

20th November 2024 · 9 mins read

Capital Daily

Will inflation worries keep UK yields as high as US ones?

Inflation has picked up in the UK but, unlike in the US, we doubt that any worries about stronger price pressures will be sustained. That’s why we still expect Gilt yields to fall.

20th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

How will other countries respond to Trump’s tariffs?

The experience of the first Trump administration suggests that other countries will retaliate to the imposition of new US tariffs but in a way that is measured and minimises the risk of escalating...

20th November 2024 · 9 mins read

Canada Economics Update

What is behind the slumping participation rate?

The slump in the participation rate this year at least partly reflects the cyclical weakness of hiring, which means that the labour market is weaker than the unemployment rate alone might suggest. The...

20th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

Latin America’s debt risks revisited

A year ago, we published an in-depth report arguing that the calm prevailing at the time around sovereign debt risks in Latin America wouldn’t last and that public debt dynamics would deteriorate...

20th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Climate Economics Update

China green exports shrug off tariffs

China’s green export volumes rose in October and were just 3% shy of the record high reached in August. Chinese battery makers could be hit hard by President-elect Trump’s tariff proposals. But the...

20th November 2024 · 2 mins read