Climate Economics Update

Trump-shaped shadow looms large over COP29

COP29 – which is set to kick off in Baku next week – has been dubbed the ‘finance COP’ given that the top priority for negotiators will be to agree on a new climate finance pledge. However, Trump’s...

7th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Oct. 24)

Lower borrowing costs should breathe some much-needed life into the market next year, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate 'lock-in' will continue to hold back activity...

6th November 2024 · 1 min read

Commodities Update

The curious case of negative Texan natural gas prices

Negative natural gas prices at a few trading hubs in West Texas, including the Waha Hub, have curiously become the norm this year. This Update looks at five key questions on the topic.

6th November 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Economics Focus

The macro and market consequences of a second Trump administration

Donald Trump’s second presidency is likely to result in lower US GDP growth, faster US inflation and a slightly higher path for the fed funds rate. The implications for the rest of the world are...

6th November 2024 · 14 mins read

Event

Drop-In: Trump's second term - Macro and market implications

1730898000

Our senior economist team were online the day after the election to help clients understand the economic and market implications of what we know so far - and what's still to b

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Oct. 2024)

Rising borrowing costs snuffed out the nascent recovery in mortgage activity in October, with home purchase and refinancing applications both slumping after a promising end to September. This puts to...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

The return of Trump and the fortunes of the Trump Trade

This early edition of the Capital Daily provides our first thoughts on the market reaction to the likelihood of a second Trump term.

6th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

US Election

The presidential election remains too close to call, but Donald Trump does appear to be edging ahead in some of the key swing states. At close to 11.30pm ET, the NYT gives Trump an 91% chance of...

6th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

What risk does election pose to Treasuries?

Although the outcome of the US election plainly matters for Treasuries, there is a risk of overegging this. After all, a large part of the recent moves in Treasury yields seem to have been due to the...

5th November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Rapid Response

ISM Services Index (Oct.)

The further rise in the ISM services index to a two-year high in October suggests the services sector is continuing to soar, contrasting with the recent weakness in manufacturing. The strong rebound...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Chart Pack

Canada Chart Pack (Nov. 2024)

Earlier interest rate cuts are yet to have much effect on the Canadian economy, which remains trapped in a period of below-potential growth. Making matters worse, any boost to the economy from lower...

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Canada Rapid Response

Canada International Trade (Sep. 2024)

The improvement in the goods trade position in September was for all the wrong reasons, with a fall in imports outpacing a decline in exports. While this suggests that net trade provided a small boost...

5th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Rapid Response

International Trade (Sep. 2024)

The trade deficit widened to $84.4bn in September, from an upwardly revised $70.8bn in August, as imports surged ahead of the short-lived port strike in October.

5th November 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

Are investors braced for too much post-election volatility?

Investors are braced for turbulence in the Treasury market, even allowing for the big moves that we’ve already seen in it recently. That’s hardly a surprise, given the result of tomorrow’s election is...

4th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Where will interest rates trough and why?

We expect interest rates to be cut to around the equilibrium of 3% or so in the US, UK and Australia. But rates in the euro-zone and Canada seem likely to fall below their equilibria next year...

4th November 2024 · 4 mins read