US Commercial Property Update CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2024) The small fall in core orders and larger fall in underlying capital goods shipments leaves prospects for second quarter business equipment investment weaker than we had expected. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty The global economy seems to be heading into recovery mode as the adverse effects of the previous surge in inflation subside. Real incomes are recovering in most advanced economies and China is feeling... 27th June 2024 · 46 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (May 2024) The 11.3% m/m decline in new home sales in May will steal all the headlines, but it largely reflected a significant upward revision to the April sales number, leaving us somewhat confused at the... 26th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower rates to drive stronger GDP growth next year Below potential GDP growth and falling core inflation will persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with the policy rate settling at 2.5% next year. Lower interest rates should, in... 26th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily The end of the beginning for the AI bubble? Nvidia has entered correction territory, but we doubt this will mark the beginning of the end of enthusiasm about artificial intelligence (AI). Instead, this might usher in a new phase of a bubble we... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Economic Outlook Consumers beginning to feel the pinch We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but... 25th June 2024 · 16 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Strong US dollar to weigh on hotel recovery; West to trail After a strong recovery post-pandemic, momentum in hotel revenue growth is likely to remain subdued over the next few years. With a stronger US dollar hindering the revival of the tourist industry, we... 25th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Apr. 2024) The second consecutive moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in April could be a sign that the increase in home listings this year has cooled the market. We think rising supply will eventually be... 25th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (May 2024) The stronger monthly gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in May will give the Bank some cause for concern after starting its loosening cycle in June. However, with some of that... 25th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Climate Economics Focus How big a blow would Trump deal to green policy? A return of President Trump to the White House would be a shot across the bows for global efforts to reduce emissions – particularly as he would almost certainly withdraw the US from the Paris... 25th June 2024 · 13 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (June 2024) The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow... 24th June 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank leaves its options open The Summary of Deliberations from the Bank of Canada’s June meeting reiterated that further interest rate cuts are likely but gave little away about how quickly the Bank will move. With another two... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (May 2024) Existing home sales were essentially flat in May which is somewhat puzzling given that pending home sales and home purchase mortgage applications, which lead transactions by a month, both fell... 21st June 2024 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fiscal outlook deteriorates further This week the CBO released new projections showing that the Federal deficit is expected to be $1.9trn, or 6.7% of GDP, in the current 2024 fiscal year that ends this September. That projection is more... 21st June 2024 · 6 mins read
