US Economics Update Recovery in residential investment to lose steam The rebound in residential investment over the past year will go into reverse in Q2, as housing starts and home sales slump again. We expect this weakness to persist thanks to a coming slump in new... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data still point to softer wage growth Despite the modest rise in job openings in May, the big picture remains that labour market conditions continue to slowly normalise, and the low quits rate still points to a sharp slowdown in wage... 2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook Houston and Chicago top the apartment rankings Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted... 2nd July 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (June 2024) The ISM manufacturing index was little changed in June, leaving it consistent at face value with a small fall in GDP. While the ISM has not been a good leading indicator of GDP growth in recent years... 1st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Investors appear unfazed by odds favouring Trump Incumbent President Biden’s uneven performance during the debate yesterday with his predecessor and challenger, Donald Trump, has reduced Biden’s perceived chance of winning re-election significantly... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much... 28th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still data dependent The May CPI data were a step back after the run of soft core price readings in the first quarter. The broader evidence stills seems supportive of a July interest rate cut, but the next CPI release for... 28th June 2024 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Biden debate woes leave Trump ahead Joe Biden’s faltering debate performance leaves Donald Trump as the narrow favourite to win this November’s presidential election. There isn’t an alternative Democratic candidate who would fare any... 28th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Commodities Weekly Economics, not the White House, the key to US energy The Dallas Fed survey of oil and gas firms released this week revealed deep dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Donald Trump has made it clear he would provide greater support for the... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (May) The core PCE deflator increased by only 0.08% m/m in May and, even allowing for some modest upward revisions to the gains in earlier months, that was enough to pull the annual core inflation rate down... 28th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Climate Economics Monthly Key highlights from June This Monthly looks at some of the key climate-related developments in June, including the narrowing wedge between the EU and UK carbon prices, and what Nobel Prize-winning climate scientist Claudia... 28th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A tale of two tech bubbles & why we doubt this one will pop soon The last US tech bubble inflated in a different way to this one. A comparison of the two leads us to conclude that this bubble will continue to inflate, despite the recent wobble in Nvidia’s share... 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand to moderate We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in June. The unemployment rate probably edged back down to 3.9%, while we expect a renewed slowdown in wage growth. 27th June 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been... 27th June 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Durable Goods Orders & Advance Economic Indicators (May 2024) The small fall in core orders and larger fall in underlying capital goods shipments leaves prospects for second quarter business equipment investment weaker than we had expected. 27th June 2024 · 2 mins read
