US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Sep. 2024)

The second consecutive moderate 0.3% rise in house prices in September reflects the market picking up momentum over the summer as mortgage rates fell. However, timelier indicators, like the sales-to...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

New Home Sales (Oct. 2024)

The large fall in new home sales in October was to be expected given the disruption from hurricanes Helene and Milton, as well as the rise in mortgage rates last month. While sales should rebound this...

26th November 2024 · 2 mins read

Global Economics Update

​​Canada, China and Mexico in Trump’s firing line​

President-elect Donald Trump’s first threatened tariffs since the election are designed to extract concessions on drug trafficking and illegal border crossings, which means it may be possible for the...

26th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of another yield curve inversion

The spread between 10- and 2-year Treasury yields has ‘inverted’ again, partly because the nomination of Bessent as US Treasury secretary has eased fiscal concerns. But we forecast the curve to...

25th November 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q4 24)

All-property values are down 18% from their mid-2022 peaks. And with appraisal-based cap rates still set to tick higher, we expect further small falls in values. That should take the peak-to-trough...

25th November 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Where are the residential construction layoffs?

Residential construction employment has been performing much better than the slump in construction over the past year might have implied. We suspect that is because job losses in the new home...

25th November 2024 · 3 mins read

US Economics Update

It's Trump's world, his cabinet just live in it

Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding what policies president-elect Donald Trump will enact during his second term, there is a temptation to read a lot into his Cabinet nominations, but we...

25th November 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Focus

How to think about tariffs

In this Focus, we construct a framework to explore the channels through which an import tariff works, which we use to answer key questions about the impact of Trump’s proposals for a 10% universal...

25th November 2024 · 21 mins read

Event

Global Drop-In: US tariffs – How they’ll work, what they’ll do and how the world will respond

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Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose massive tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada are a reminder that this is a very real threat to the global economic outlook.

Canada Economics Weekly

Bank likely to revert to 25bp cuts

The recent stronger price and activity data, along with the announcement this week of a sales-tax break over the festive period and stimulus cheques to come next year, means we now think the Bank of...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

US Economics Weekly

Deregulation unlikely to be a game changer

We remain sceptical that deregulation will provide a disinflationary boost to the economy’s supply side and we suspect that any reduction in government spending or headcount would turn out to be...

22nd November 2024 · 7 mins read

Commodities Weekly

Tariffs & re-routing commodity trade; natural gas soars

The election victory of Donald Trump and the prospect of renewed trade restrictions has naturally sharpened attention on the potential impact of tariffs on trade flows, including on commodity trade...

22nd November 2024 · 3 mins read

Canada Rapid Response

Retail Sales (Sep. 2024)

The strong increase in retail sales volumes in September confirms that they grew by around 5% annualised last quarter, suggesting that household consumption growth picked up strongly. The October...

22nd November 2024 · 2 mins read

Climate Economics Update

What have we learnt about Trump’s climate policy?

Unsurprisingly, a second Trump presidency will support oil and gas production while rolling back environmental regulations. The fate of the Inflation Reduction Act is less certain, given that the...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read

Bonds & Equities

Taking stock of the US election fallout

With the dust settling on Trump’s victory earlier this month, this Update takes stock of what has happened across currencies, bonds, and equities; the reasons for these moves; and what we think will...

22nd November 2024 · 5 mins read