US Commercial Property Update How much office space will be needed by 2030? Our 2020 analysis of the impact of changed working patterns on office demand correctly estimated the share of fully remote work, but underpredicted the extent of hybrid work. Yet with office job... 5th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to stand pat With no prospect of the Fed adjusting policy next week, the focus of the FOMC meeting will be the new SEP forecasts. The “dots” are likely to cluster around one or two interest rate cuts this year... 5th June 2024 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Mortgage Applications (May 2024) The decline in mortgage rates in May was not enough to stop home purchase mortgage applications from falling to a three-month low. The chances of a quick turnaround in June currently look slim, as the... 5th June 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update JOLTS data point to growing labour market slack The April JOLTS data provided further evidence of normalisation, with job openings falling further, layoffs still at historically low levels and the leading indicators all pointing to wage growth... 4th June 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What’s driving the US stock market? The US stock market has been pulled in different directions by economic data since last week. But we suspect that the general trend in the next year or so will be up, as equities benefit from at least... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (May 2024) The drop in the ISM manufacturing index in May adds to the sense that the economy is losing momentum, while the drop back in the prices paid index should soothe concerns about a potential renewed rise... 3rd June 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP data unlikely to sway the Bank The weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP data and downward revision to fourth-quarter growth caused markets to price in a higher chance that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates next week... 31st May 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The influence of Treasuries and AI on stocks The fall in Treasury yields over the past two days has failed to lift equities, partly because of waning AI hype weighing on the market. That’s a contrast to much of the past year or so, when the... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Trump conviction won't sway the election We doubt that Donald Trump’s New York felony conviction on charges of falsifying business documents will have any significant impact on the presidential election campaign. 31st May 2024 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (May 2024) Most assets notched up gains this month, with “risky” ones generally outperforming “safe” ones. Government bond yields generally edged down in May and we expect that to continue, given our view that... 31st May 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q1) The 1.7% annualised gain in GDP in the first quarter was weaker than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for an above-potential 2.8% increase. With consumption growth looking much stronger than expected... 31st May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response Income & Spending (Apr.) As expected, the PCE deflator data suggest that, although not quite as bad as the first three months of the year, inflation was still running above target in April. At the same time, however, the real... 31st May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market gradually cooling We forecast another 175,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in May, with the unemployment rate expected to be unchanged at 3.9%. Wage growth should be unchanged at a muted 3.9%. 30th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Core inflation pressures likely to remain muted We suspect that monthly core price growth will accelerate marginally from the very soft rates seen in the first four months of the year but, on the whole, core price pressures should remain muted... 30th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor (Q2 2024) Following the previous large quarterly increase, improvement in all-property valuations stalled in the first quarter of the year despite a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. There was little change... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
