Global Markets Update Corporate credit spreads may end the year near extreme levels Corporate credit spreads have been near historical lows in recent weeks, and we think they will remain close to these levels in the coming months. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US New Home Sales (Apr. 2024) The spike in mortgage rates to 7.3% in April caused a sizeable drop in new home sales, as buyers decided to wait for a chance of getting a lower rate. We think this will partly reverse in May as... 23rd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Healthcare hiring & spending spree has further to run The strength of healthcare employment and spending growth is because the sector is still recovering from the pandemic and also thanks to the jump in Affordable Care Act (ACA) enrolments. Employment... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (Apr 20 - May 1) The minutes of the Fed’s early May policy meeting are, not surprisingly given the backdrop of data releases ahead of that meeting, somewhat hawkish. The resilience of economic growth and employment... 22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields: higher for only a little bit longer? While stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK have led us to push back a bit our forecast for the start of the Bank of England’s easing cycle, we still project many more rate cuts than most... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Rapid Response US Existing Home Sales (Apr. 2024) The drop in existing home sales in April will be followed up by further falls in the coming months, supporting our view that the recovery in transactions we expect this year will be concentrated in... 22nd May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24) Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Latest data offer little optimism for apartment rents The latest apartment rent data are consistent with our view that rental growth will be sluggish this year. Although single-family rent growth has fared better, we suspect it will soon start to slow... 21st May 2024 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (May 2024) The slight easing of inflationary pressures in April and softer activity data are consistent with the Fed cutting interest rates in September. Although it is taking a little longer than expected, we... 21st May 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Consumer Prices (Apr. 2024) The fourth consecutive 0.1% m/m average increase in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in April will give the Bank confidence that the further easing in core inflation is being... 21st May 2024 · 3 mins read
Energy Update US shale boom approaching a peak Having soared to a record high level under the Biden administration, we expect US shale oil output to peak this year before contracting in 2025, driven by a combination of further industry... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Heading for a weaker second quarter The further evidence of softer activity this week might not be enough to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates in June, but they add to our sense that rate cuts are coming very soon. 17th May 2024 · 6 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation slowly easing; activity softens The Biden administration announced an increase in tariffs on hi-tech & green-related goods imports from China this week, but they will have little impact on economic activity or inflation. Otherwise... 17th May 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily “Big tech” stocks may be the crown jewel again before long Although the “big-tech” sectors have been out of favour compared to others so far this quarter, we expect them to regain the lead before long and help the US stock market outperform those elsewhere. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Rapid Response Industrial Production (Apr.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output in April , together with the downward revision to the March gain, from 0.5% to 0.2%, continues the run of weaker activity data and will further solidify... 16th May 2024 · 1 min read
