Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Sep.) Manufacturing output fell further than expected in September, adding to the evidence that South Africa’s economy contracted over Q3. And a key business survey pointed to continued weakness in early Q4... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Moody’s outlook fears, Kwanza collapse, Springboks! Moody’s is likely to adopt a ‘negative’ outlook on South Africa’s local currency debt rating later today, paving the way for a downgrade to ‘junk’ status. The review comes days after the government... 1st November 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Oct.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI came in at 48.1 in October, which wasn’t as bad as most analysts had feared. But the measure still suggests that the economy has remained weak in recent months. 1st November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Political clouds gather Political risk grabbed the headlines this month, with protestors taking to the streets across the Andes and Argentina electing a new Peronist president. Demonstrations in Ecuador and Chile will weigh... 31st October 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Policy moves make headlines in key economies Policymakers in South Africa and Angola admitted the severity of their countries’ economic problems this month, while their Nigerian peers moved further down the road to autarky. South Africa’s... 31st October 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Waking up to fiscal realities Today’s ‘mini-budget’ was a painful admission that South Africa clearly faces a slowly-unfolding fiscal crisis. The gloomy tone may be an attempt to push for unpalatable economic reforms. But today’s... 30th October 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s ‘mini budget’: What to look out for South African’s finance minister will try to use tomorrow’s budget speech to put a positive spin on a very worrying situation. In striking a compromise between the need to boost the economy with... 29th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Lingering power problems set to drag on growth Investors’ worries about South Africa’s power sector often focus on Eskom’s growing debts. But a recent government report has also underlined the risk that the faltering grid will struggle to meet... 28th October 2019 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Reform in Brazil, protests in Chile, election in Argentina A victory for Peronist candidate Alberto Fernández in this weekend’s presidential election in Argentina looks almost certain and attention is likely to focus on any early signs that he will govern as... 25th October 2019 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Angola shifts to float kwanza, SA opposition cracks Angolan policymakers abandoned their currency trading band this week, suggesting that they are getting serious about reforming the FX system. The official exchange rate has fallen sharply in recent... 25th October 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Oct.) Mexican inflation remained at 3.0% y/y October, which supports our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of this year. 24th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Key economies stuck in the slow lane Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably pick up in 2020, but we think that it will be much slower than most expect. The key reason for our downbeat view is South Africa, where we think that weak... 23rd October 2019 · 25 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Sep.) South African inflation edged down to 4.1% in September, but we expect that increasing fuel price pressures will cause the headline rate to rise later this year, preventing monetary easing. 23rd October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico & the GM strike, austerity in Colombia The knock-on effects of the strike by GM auto workers in the US mean that the Mexican manufacturing figures due in the coming months will make for grim reading. But if GM’s deal with striking workers... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria flirts with autarky, South Africa slows The Nigerian government’s decision to ban all trade across the country’s land borders on Tuesday will only have a small macroeconomic impact, but it highlights the worrying shift towards more... 18th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Slow regional recovery, Argentina headed for default After a weak 2019, we expect that growth across most of Latin America will improve next year. That said, our forecasts for the regions two biggest economies – Brazil and Mexico – are below consensus... 16th October 2019 · 27 mins read
