Africa Economics Update SARB: Window for a cut closed, rates will be on hold Given policymakers’ decision to keep their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, we now think that South African interest rates will remain unchanged over the coming quarters. Policymakers do not seem... 19th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Aug.) South African inflation remained below the target midpoint in August, which we think will allow policymakers to cut their key rate from 6.50% to 6.25% at their meeting tomorrow. 18th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Aug.) Inflation remained above the central bank’s target in August, but the fact that core inflation slowed has strengthened our view that policymakers will cut their key interest rate in November. 17th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine capital controls, Chile cuts, weakness in Brazil The introduction of capital controls in Argentina last weekend seems to have stabilised the official foreign exchange market, but it is likely to have pernicious economic effects. Moreover, while... 6th September 2019 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mixed Q2 GDP, weak PMIs, but optimism from Eskom GDP figures from the region’s two biggest economies painted a mixed picture. While growth in Nigeria slowed a touch, the rebound in South Africa was stronger than we had expected. Even so, we think... 6th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Q2 rebound, but underlying growth weak South Africa’s economy made a surprisingly strong recovery in Q2, growing by 3.1% q/q saar, but growth remained weak at a year-on-year rate. Given soft demand and low petrol prices, we expect that... 3rd September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Economy stuck in second gear Disappointing Q2 GDP figures out today underlined the weakness of Nigeria’s economy. This supported our below-consensus view that growth will remain trapped at around 2% in 2019 and 2020. 3rd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Aug.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI fell to 45.7 in August, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains weak. 2nd September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Mozambique debts: The end of the beginning? Mozambique’s government and its bondholders edged towards a restructuring deal this week. While an agreement would not solve the government’s debt problems, it would be a big step forward. Elsewhere... 30th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Chart Pack African reform: Two steps forward, one step back Officials in Ethiopia and South Africa enacted or proposed key economic reforms this month, while their peers in Nigeria retreated towards more protectionist policymaking. Recent developments have... 29th August 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Treasury plan puts pressure on president The unexpected release of economic reform proposals by South Africa’s treasury is probably an attempt to push the president to announce a more ambitious plan at October’s budget speech. The plan... 29th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Kenya: Despite drought, next rate move will be a cut Kenya’s drought will probably push inflation above the CBK’s target range in Q4. But bank will likely look through this spike, as it did in 2017. We think the next rate move will be a 50bp cut in Q4... 28th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. African inflation eases, Buhari (finally) names a cabinet South African inflation slipped to 4.0% y/y in July, suggesting to us that policymakers will cut their key rate to 6.25% in September. Risks to this view are, admittedly, growing. After delaying for... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Currencies weaken, but EM rate cuts continue Argentina political developments sparked sharp falls in EM currencies over the past month, but this wasn’t enough to deter policymakers from continuing their easing cycle. Central bankers in Turkey... 21st August 2019 · 9 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jul.) South African inflation slipped to just 4.0% y/y in July, supporting our view that policymakers will cut their policy rate from 6.50% to 6.25% in September. This is a strongly non-consensus view. 21st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Low oil prices mean focused pain & diffuse benefits The fall in oil prices this month will create both winners and losers in Africa. But the winners’ gains will be small and spread across dozens of countries, whereas pain will be concentrated in a few... 20th August 2019 · 3 mins read
