Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) Weak domestic demand in South Africa has narrowed the country’s current account deficit, which should provide some support to the rand and allow the SARB more space to loosen policy. We expect that... 5th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Feb.) While weak PMIs elsewhere in the EM world were partially due to spill over effects from the coronavirus, the sharp fall in the South African survey largely reflects domestic weaknesses. We suspect... 2nd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin American markets in the firing line Latin American currencies and equities have been among the worst performers in the emerging world this month as fears about the spread of the coronavirus have intensified. The region has limited... 27th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Warning lights across the region Recent news added to our general sense of pessimism about most African economies in 2020. While the region has yet to report any cases of the new coronavirus, falling commodity prices are already... 27th February 2020 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update SA: Public sector cuts likely won’t prevent downgrade The government is trying to balance weak revenue with increased interest and SOE spending by cutting wages and programme costs, which will prove politically difficult. The weakening fiscal position... 26th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Feb.) Stronger headline inflation in early February was mostly due to food prices; core inflation remained stable. Even so, we think that the persistence of above-target inflation will limit policymakers to... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q4 2019) Growth in Nigeria ticked up a notch in Q4, but there is still no sign of a broad-based economic recovery. We expect that the authorities will continue to enact unconventional stimulus policies later... 24th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa prepares for budget, Nigeria’s PIB stumbles on South Africa’s 2020 budget speech – taking place next week – will lay out the government’s fiscal consolidation plans. Given the grim economic backdrop and the need to provide aid to Eskom, tax hikes... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jan.) South African inflation jumped to the 4.5% y/y midpoint of policymakers’ target range in January, which strengthens our view that the current easing cycle will end after just one more cut. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Ramaphosa promises reform, Ethiopia delays vote, BoG to hold President Cyril Ramaphosa’s latest state of the nation address came against a grim backdrop of figures suggesting that the economy re-entered recession in Q4. The president’s plans to open up the... 14th February 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Ramaphosa goes slow and steady President Cyril Ramaphosa’s State of the Nation Address contained a few promising announcements, relating to independent power firms. But his continued stress on the need for consensus strengthened... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Weak Q4 sets up soft start for 2020 December’s misleadingly strong mining figures shouldn’t distract from evidence that GDP probably contracted in Q4, tipping the country into a recession and creating a very weak starting point for 2020... 13th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Dec.) Mexico’s industrial sectors weakened again in December, capping a poor year and creating a weak starting point for 2020. The available surveys suggest that conditions remained difficult more recently. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing (Dec.) The South African manufacturing sector’s terrible performance in December has set up a weak start to 2020. And, given that power cuts lasted into January, problems in the sector probably continued. 11th February 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Virus disruptions start to hit Africa, all eyes on SONA While Africa has – so far – not reported any cases of the new coronavirus, evidence is building that shutdowns in China are causing economic disruptions for the region. Kenya’s locust infestation will... 7th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Downbeat forecasts, Central bankers, plagues of locusts We published our latest Africa Economic Outlook this week, laying out below-consensus views on South Africa and Angola, but more optimistic forecasts for Ghana, Kenya, and Ethiopia. We think that... 31st January 2020 · 4 mins read
