Africa Chart Pack Policymakers step up African central banks had a busy month in January. Policymakers in South Africa and Kenya surprised the markets (and us) by cutting their key rates by 25bp. We expect that both countries’ central... 31st January 2020 · 13 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Coronavirus fears hit Latin American markets The decline in energy and metals prices caused by concerns about the coronavirus took a heavy toll on the region’s financial markets in the last few weeks. The Brazilian and Chilean currencies have... 30th January 2020 · 12 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Flat again Mexico dodged another technical recession in Q4, we think that the weakness seen in the later months of last year will persist into 2020, causing growth to fall far below consensus expectations. 30th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Another disappointing year Economic growth in Africa is likely to come in at just 3% this year, as the slump that began in 2015 drags on. The limit on regional growth will, again, come from South Africa where hopes for a... 30th January 2020 · 24 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN tweaks, Zambia struggles, Ramaphosa consolidates Nigerian policymakers kept their key rate on hold today, but tinkered with the cash reserve ratio in an effort to put a floor under falling interbank rates. Elsewhere, South Africa’s reform-minded... 24th January 2020 · 6 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Jan.) The above-target Brazilian inflation reading for the middle of January reduces the chance of an interest rate cut next month. Mexican inflation also rose, supporting our expectation of a short easing... 23rd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Dec.) South African inflation strengthened in December, and we expect that it will continue to do so in Q1, bringing the current monetary easing cycle to an end after just one more 25bp rate cut. 22nd January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook A fitful recovery Growth in most Latin American economies should strengthen in 2020, but we expect that these recoveries will be slow and fragile. Indeed, the region is likely to be the worst performing part of the... 21st January 2020 · 26 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA: Q4 recession likely, SARB to the rescue? UK in Africa This week’s South African economic figures suggest that activity in November was stronger than we’d expected, but we still think that a poor performance in December caused output to fall over Q4 as a... 17th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: SARB launches brief easing cycle South African policymakers surprised the markets by cutting the repo rate, but with inflation set to rise there is limited room for further easing. We expect just one further 25bp cut. 16th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Recession still likely, despite stronger November Strong November retail sales figures suggest that South Africa’s economy gained ground in the middle of Q4. Given power cuts in December, however, we expect that output still fell over the quarter as... 16th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chilean peso hits a bump, AMLO’s oil dilemma The Chilean peso was the worst performing major EM currency this week, but there are still good reasons to think that it will appreciate by later this year. Elsewhere, the discovery of a major... 10th January 2020 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly S. Africa: Recession looms, but exams provide ray of hope Downbeat South African activity figures out this week strengthened our belief that the country’s economy slipped into another technical recession in Q4. On a more positive note, exam results suggested... 10th January 2020 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico CPI (Dec.) & Brazil Ind. Production (Nov.) Mexican inflation eased again in December, supporting our view that policymakers will continue to cut rates this year. Elsewhere, the larger-than-expected 1.2% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial... 9th January 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Another technical recession looks likely South Africa’s manufacturing sector was struggling even before December’s power cuts, so production almost certainly fell in Q4. Given weakness in other sectors, we think that South Africa slipped... 9th January 2020 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update West Africa’s Eco: Meet the new franc Rebranding the West African CFA franc as the “Eco” will have little economic effect; the new currency seems likely to be governed by the same FX regime as its controversial predecessor. The move may... 7th January 2020 · 3 mins read
