Africa Economics Weekly More ‘Buharinomics’, signs of Q2 rebound in Nigeria, SA Despite fears to the contrary, calls this week by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari to tighten restrictions on access to foreign currency are likely to have little effect on inflation. But they... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria FX ban: Little price effect, big hit CBN credibility The Nigerian president’s call to exclude all food importers from the official FX market will probably be poorly-enforced and have little effect on inflation. But the government’s ever-expanding... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Tepid recovery in Q2, rate cut still likely June retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that the economy returned to growth in Q2. But the recovery was soft – we estimate around 1.6% q/q saar – and we still think that... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rand weakness will continue We’ve cut our end-year rand forecast from an already below-consensus ZAR15/$ to ZAR16.5/$. While risks are growing, we’re holding to our view that the SARB will cut its policy rate by 25bp in... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Could weak ZAR, Q2 recovery keep SA rates on hold? The rand’s recent weakness against the US dollar is mostly due to domestic factors – like problems at Eskom – rather than general EM fears about the US-China trade war. Currency weakness has increased... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Signs point to rebound in Q2 Despite the weak performance of the manufacturing sector, June activity data strengthened our view that South Africa returned to growth in Q2 after a sharp fall in Q1. Combined with recent currency... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: What is to be done? Hopes that President Cyril Ramaphosa can quickly revive South Africa’s economy are fading. The real problems are all structural, so even if he does make bold policy changes – far from guaranteed... 7th August 2019 · 20 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly A look under Eskom’s hood, factory sentiment up Eskom’s latest annual report highlights that the firm’s woes run deeper than poor management and, until it is allowed to raise electricity tariffs significantly, the state will need to continue... 2nd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) South Africa’s PMI rebounded to 52.1 in July, adding to signs that the economy gained pace in the middle of the year. Even so, headline growth over 2019 as a whole will be tepid, and we still expect... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Chart Pack New Eskom bailout rocks rand News that South Africa’s government agreed to provide another 60bn rand (US$4.2bn) bailout to Eskom between now and 2021 caused the rand to weaken by 2.3% against the US dollar due to fears that this... 31st July 2019 · 14 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Eskom bailout, Kganyago sounds hawkish, CBN on hold This week’s Eskom rescue package didn’t go far enough to meaningfully address the firm’s problems, but was expensive enough to increase the risk of a sovereign debt downgrade in November. SARB... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Learning to live with slower Chinese growth Growth in China is slowing, but fears of a big drag on Africa are overdone. While the Asian giant’s demand for some commodities will soften, it will remain a key trade and investment partner. Indeed... 25th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Jun.) South African inflation remained at the 4.5% mid-point of the target range in June, which strengthens our view that policymakers will follow up this month’s 25bp rate cut with another one in September... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: CBN puts faith in unconventional policy (again) Nigerian policymakers held their key rate at 13.50% today, and indicated that they will rely on unconventional policy tools to boost lending over the coming quarters. These are, however, unlikely to... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa rebound, rate cuts, Zambia bond rally Policymakers in South Africa reduced their key rate by 25bp this week, and we think that they will cut again later this year. Central banks in Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana will probably join in on the... 19th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth picked up in Q2 Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in... 19th July 2019 · 9 mins read
