Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will probably pick up in 2020, but we think that it will be much slower than most expect. The key reason for our downbeat view is South Africa, where we think that weak investment spending, tight policy, and persistent power problems will prevent the economy from accelerating at all next year. Economic conditions will improve in Nigeria and Angola, but growth will remain weak. Smaller economies, on the other hand, will continue to outperform. Ethiopia, Ghana, and Rwanda will be among the fastest-growing EMs in 2020. Across the region, public debt problems will continue to build.
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