Africa Economics Update South Africa: GDP flat in August, risk of Q3 contraction South Africa’s retail sector didn’t perform as badly as the mining or manufacturing sectors in August, but there is still a growing risk the economy contracted over Q3 as a whole. 16th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Sep.) Inflation in Nigeria picked up to 11.2% y/y in September, but we still expect that policymakers will cut their key rate in November. If policymakers opt to leave the rate on hold, they will probably... 15th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Aug.) Mexican industrial production rose by a surprisingly brisk 0.8% m/m in August, but with the key manufacturing sector facing a slowdown, we expect that conditions for industry as a whole will remain... 11th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria budget, more weakness in SA, Uganda rate cut Nigeria’s president announced his draft budget this week, the first time in several years that the document has been published in Q3. This raises the possibility that lawmakers will be able to pass it... 11th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Risk of contraction in Q3 Weak industrial figures for August present the very real risk that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q3. Even if growth remained positive, the recovery seen in Q2 has clearly faded. 10th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased to a three-year low of 3.0% y/y in September, which strengthens our view that policymakers will cut their key rate from 7.75% to 7.25% by the end of the year. 9th October 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly CBN ups pressure on banks, ANC balks at reforms The Central Bank of Nigeria increased pressure on commercial banks to extend more loans this week, but we doubt that the new targets will have much effect. Elsewhere, South African leaders seem to be... 4th October 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Sep.) South Africa’s PMI slumped to a decade low of 41.6 in September, adding to the evidence that – despite the rebound in Q2 – the underlying pace of economic growth remains very weak. 1st October 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Rate cuts in Brazil and Mexico will continue The central banks of Brazil and Mexico loosened policy this month, and we expect that they will continue to cut rates in Q4. Inflation in both countries is below target, and both economies are... 30th September 2019 · 12 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Dovish tone in Kenya, fiscal woes in Nigeria Kenyan policymakers held their key interest rate at 9.00% earlier this week, but dovish commentary strengthened our view that they will loosen policy next year. Nigeria’s central bank governor, by... 27th September 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Dovish votes suggest steeper easing cycle Mexican policymakers cut their policy rate from 8.00% to 7.75% yesterday, and we think that they will continue to loosen policy over the coming quarters. We now expect a 25bp cut in both of the... 27th September 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Ethiopia: More fragile than it looks Ethiopia’s investment-focused economic model has attracted widespread praise, but has also created dangerous external vulnerabilities. Were domestic instability or EM-wide risk aversion to cause... 26th September 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth and debt worries mount across the region Figures released over the past month brought bad news for almost all of Sub-Saharan Africa’s key economies. After a surprisingly-strong rebound in Q2, growth in South Africa seems to have slowed at... 26th September 2019 · 13 mins read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Budget plan underlines fiscal problems Nigeria’s latest budget plan has strengthened our view that the fiscal position is unsustainable and that the country will face some kind of debt crisis within five years. 25th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Sep.) Mexican inflation eased very slightly over the first half of September, supporting our view that policymakers at the central bank will cut their key rate from 8.00% to 7.75% on Thursday. 24th September 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Rates on hold, but cuts coming in Ghana & Nigeria Policymakers in South Africa, Nigeria and Ghana sang from the same hymn sheet this week by maintaining their key rates on hold. While we think that the window for monetary easing has now closed in... 20th September 2019 · 5 mins read
