Latin America Economics Update Growth in Mexico: Digging into the details Revised GDP figures have, again, shown Mexico as one of the worst-performing large EMs. But a closer look at the data underlines the huge variation within the country, which includes both pockets of... 27th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Interest Rate Nigerian policymakers left their key rate unchanged today, preferring to use unconventional policy rather than rate cuts to boost the economy. We suspect that most of these measures will fail... 26th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigerian weakness, Dovish SARB, big Zambian rate hike Figures released this week added to the evidence that Nigeria’s economy continued to falter in the second half of this year. South African policymakers sounded dovish at their latest MPC meeting, but... 22nd November 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Nov.) Inflation ticked up in the first half of November in both Brazil and Mexico, but we doubt that this will be enough to dissuade policymakers from cutting their key interest rates in December. We expect... 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria GDP (Q3) Nigeria’s non-oil economy strengthened a touch in Q3, but headline growth remained very weak. Without significant policy change, we expect that the economy will continue to struggle in 2020. 22nd November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Rates on hold going into 2020 South African policymakers left their key rate on hold at 6.50% today, and we expect that it will remain on hold going into 2020. But we do admit that the risk of a cut in the middle of next year has... 21st November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Focus South Africa: A closer look at the public debt problem South Africa’s public debt burden is not too high, but the direction of travel is very worrying. While the structure of the country’s debts and its deep local capital markets make an acute crisis... 21st November 2019 · 15 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa CPI (Oct.) Weak inflation figures have increased the risk of another rate cut at tomorrow’s MPC meeting. But with inflation set to pick up over the coming months, we expect that the rate will remain on hold. 20th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria CPI (Oct.) Food prices pushed up Nigerian inflation in October, suggesting that policymakers will leave their key rate on hold next week. Monetary conditions will probably still be loosened using unconventional... 18th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Another swing in SA output, Kwanza stable, Fiscal splurges The latest South African activity figures added to evidence that the economy contracted again in Q3. Meanwhile, Angola’s recession is likely to be prolonged into 2020 given the currency’s falls this... 15th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Cuts continue, but markets have gone too far After loosening policy again yesterday, Mexican policymakers will probably cut rates by another 75bp over the coming six months. Given that the US loosening cycle now seems to be at an end, market... 15th November 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Mining weak, GDP likely contracted in Q3 Downbeat activity figures suggest that South Africa’s economy contracted again in Q3. This adds to the evidence that the risks to our below-consensus growth figures are heavily weighted to the... 14th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Sep.) Mexican industrial production fell again in September, and problems in the auto sector probably caused conditions to deteriorate further in October. This adds to the pressure for policymakers to cut... 11th November 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazilian reforms, Chile protests, Fernández shuns IMF Fiscal reforms proposed by Brazil’s president this week are a step in the right direction, but the good news already seems to be priced. Indeed, markets took their cue from a failed oil auction... 8th November 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Weakness in SA, Kwanza finds its feet, Kenya rate cap cut This week’s South African activity data added to the evidence that the economy faltered in Q3. We’ll know more when retail and mining figures are published next week, but there is an underappreciated... 8th November 2019 · 5 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil & Mexico CPI (Oct.) The fall in Brazilian inflation to 2.5% in October, one of the lowest rates on record, makes another 50bp cut in the Selic rate at December’s Copom meeting almost certain. That said, policymakers have... 7th November 2019 · 2 mins read
