US Economics Focus Has the natural unemployment rate fallen? A decline in frictional unemployment and shifts in the composition of the labour force, which is now on average older and better educated, mean that the so-called natural unemployment rate has fallen... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Consumer revival underway The recovery in Japan’s economy since early last year has mostly been driven by a surge in exports, but Japanese consumers also seem to be joining the party. Consumer spending is on track for another... 13th June 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The impressive 54,500 increase in employment in May, which included a big increase in full-time jobs, will no doubt prompt louder calls for the Bank of Canada to hurry up and raise interest rates. But... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Households getting a smaller share of the pie The share of the national income going to Australian households is at an eight-year low and is within a whisker of a 50-year low. What’s more, households in Australia currently get a smaller share of... 9th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Yellen may set out balance sheet plans as early as next week We expect the Fed will press ahead and raise interest rates for the third time in seven months at the FOMC meeting that concludes on 14th June. There is also a good chance that it announces formal... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the world now back to full employment? The unemployment rate in most advanced economies is now lower than it was on the eve of the financial crisis. However, the “natural” rate of unemployment has probably fallen and the supply of labour... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Rising orders bode well for euro-zone exports Net trade probably contributed little to euro-zone GDP growth in Q1, but the outlook for exports is encouraging. The monthly goods export and import values data show a decline in the goods trade... 7th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will wage growth strengthen again? We expect the expansion in the labour force to slow in coming years which suggests that wage growth should soon start picking up again. However, the shift to flexible employment forms, globalisation... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Following an unusually weak reading in March, the rebound in wage growth in April came as no surprise. But the bigger picture is that labour cash earnings are not growing fast enough to create... 6th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Wage growth not being held back by mix of jobs created The slowdown in payroll employment growth over the past year or so has been concentrated in low wage occupations, indicating that the overall mix of jobs being created has improved. This makes the... 5th June 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) & Internat’l Trade (Apr.) With the unemployment rate dropping to a 17-year low, the Fed will continue to hike interest rates even though trend employment growth has slowed and core inflation remains stubbornly below target. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (May) Consumer sentiment rebounded in May and remains near the highest it has been since the sales tax hike. Meanwhile, household inflation expectations have started to recover again. 2nd June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (May) Small business confidence was little changed in May and points to continued gains in industrial output. But despite rising labour shortages, price pressures remain subdued. 31st May 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Consumer Spending (Apr.) Strong gains in retail sales and “core” household spending in April suggest that private consumption is on track for another solid increase in the second quarter. Meanwhile, employment growth remains... 30th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Little scope for participation rate to keep rising While the overall participation rate has continued to trend down, there has been a sharp rebound in the share of 25-54 year-olds in the labour force. This has added 1½ million additional people to the... 26th May 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview How much further can the unemployment rate fall? We estimate that non-farm payrolls increased by 200,000 in May. The unemployment rate probably held steady at 4.4%, but the surveys suggest that it will fall further soon and the upward pressure on... 25th May 2017 · 1 min read
