Europe Data Response German Ifo (Dec.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q3) December’s small decline in German Ifo business sentiment from a record high suggests that the outlook for next year is bright despite the uncertain political backdrop and the prospect of ECB QE... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack State election victories strengthen BJP’s hand The state election victories for Prime Minister Modi’s BJP in both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh ensure that the ruling party remains firmly on track to secure a majority in the Rajya Sabha (upper... 19th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Nearing full employment Japan’s economy will expand the most this year since 2013. Yet the unemployment rate hasn’t fallen any further since the start of the year. This isn’t due to a surge in productivity that has reduced... 18th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q4) Today’s Tankan survey showed that business conditions didn’t improve much further this quarter which suggests that growth is now slowing. Nonetheless, capacity and staff shortages continue to... 15th December 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Nov.) Another month of extraordinarily strong jobs growth in November leaves little doubt about the current health of the labour market. That said, there is still plenty of spare capacity which will... 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Dec.) The manufacturing PMI was the highest in nearly four years in December as external demand continues to improve. However, price pressures are only strengthening slowly. 14th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Oct.) While the 56,000 fall in employment in the three months to October was larger than the consensus expectation of a 40,000 drop, employment looks unlikely to continue to fall for much longer. Meanwhile... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Employment (Oct.) October’s Labour Force Survey showed that employment fell. Yet, the unemployment rate held firm and wage growth improved. In big picture terms, the data are still consistent with rents rising next... 13th December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage pressures still muted The latest wage data indicate that there’s little risk of inflation overshooting the Bank’s 2% inflation target anytime soon. For this reason among others, the Bank has nothing to gain by raising... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly How much further can the labour market tighten? The Fed is almost certain to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its policy meeting next week and, against a backdrop of tightening labour market conditions and gradually rising wage inflation... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) The slightly bigger than expected 228,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in November all but guarantees another 25bp interest rate hike by the Fed next week, particularly with the unemployment rate... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Has the unemployment rate reached a floor? The jobless rate has been effectively flat since February despite continued strong growth in the economy. The economy is now close to full employment which suggests that wage growth will continue to... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Nov.) The surge in the Economy Watchers Survey is yet another sign that the drop in consumer spending last quarter was just a blip. The survey suggests that job growth will pick up further and that... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Oct.) Regular earnings are now growing a touch faster than productivity which suggests that firms may have to start raising prices before long. Nonetheless, there is still a long way to reach the Bank of... 8th December 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Will the Bank of Japan follow the Fed and the ECB? A long period of sustained economic growth has helped drive unemployment in Japan to its lowest level in nearly a quarter of a century. Nonetheless, inflation and wage growth are both barely positive... 7th December 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Tax reform enters the final stretch With both the House and Senate having passed their respective versions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, it now seems reasonably certain that we will get a package of tax cuts in place by early next year... 5th December 2017 · 1 min read
