Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP & Swiss Ind. Prod. (Q2) & Sweden Unemploy’t (Jul.) Norway’s mainland economy recorded another strong expansion in Q2 and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery will continue to gain pace. But with inflation set to fall further, we doubt... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can unemployment keep falling? Despite relatively sluggish GDP growth in the first half of 2017, jobs growth has maintained a solid pace, with the unemployment rate having now fallen below the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC)... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss wage growth to stay low despite unemployment falls The decline in Swiss unemployment in Q2 shows that improving economic conditions are continuing to feed through to the labour market. While we expect unemployment to fall further, we doubt that this... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Labour Market (Jul.) The recent run of chunky rises in employment is helping to cushion the blow to households’ finances from record low wage growth. The past volatility of the data suggests it’s wise not to get too... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The latest labour market figures showed some signs that the tightening in the labour market may be at long last leading to a recovery in wage growth and provide us with optimism that the real pay... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia Wage Price Index (Q2) The stagnation in wage growth at the record low of 1.9% in the second quarter supports our view that the low wage, low inflation climate will mean the RBA won’t raise interest rates next year as the... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Inflation genie remains in its bottle Japan’s economy probably recorded the sixth quarter of uninterrupted GDP growth in Q2 and the outlook for the third quarter is positive. In fact, the economy remains on track to enjoy the longest... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Business bonanza? The surge in business confidence in Australia has made us a little more upbeat on the outlook for business investment. But with households showing some signs of struggling, a bit more investment won’t... 11th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to pick-up in wages and investment The latest JOLT and NFIB surveys show that labour market conditions remain unusually tight and, while this is still not translating into significantly faster wage growth, it might finally be prompting... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus CEE: Tight labour markets point to more hikes than most expect We think that natural unemployment rates have fallen by 2.5-3.0%-pts in Central & Eastern Europe over the past decade. Even so, actual rates of unemployment are now significantly below these (lower)... 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jul.) Despite a drop in July, the Economy Watchers Survey still points to solid gains in consumer spending. 8th August 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Although employment rose by a moderate 10,900 in July, the much larger gain in full-time jobs and drop in the unemployment rate to 6.3%, from 6.5%, are encouraging and point to stronger wage growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Should we be worrying about consumers? Annual revisions to the income and spending data released this week mean that the household saving rate is now estimated to have fallen sharply over the past year, calling into question the... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & International Trade (Jun.) The 209,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July, together with the drop back in the unemployment rate to a joint 16-year low, suggests the Fed will still need to raise rates again this year, even if... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
