Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jul.) The fall in labour cash earnings in July was entirely due to a slump in bonus payments, whereas regular pay is holding up. Nonetheless, there is still a long way to go to reach the Bank of Japan’s 2%... 6th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Update What do immigration changes mean for the economy? The announcement by the White House that it will phase out the Obama-era Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) programme, which provides temporary work permits for 800,000 children of illegal... 5th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) August’s employment report was disappointing across the board but given the potential seasonal problems – with weak initial readings in August subsequently revised higher in previous years – it isn’t... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French outlook bright despite reform worries French consumers are, rather unusually, very upbeat at the moment, with measures of consumer confidence at or close to multi-year highs. In particular, they are much less worried about being made... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Aug. 17) While consumer confidence declined in August, it remains high by past standards. Households are upbeat about labour market prospects and their personal finances, which should support consumer spending... 1st September 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Aug.) & Unemployment (Jul.) The latest euro-zone inflation and unemployment data broadly support the case for the ECB to taper its asset purchases next year, but the Bank seems unlikely to announce its plan until its October... 31st August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending holding up well despite real pay squeeze There have been some tentative signs that the tight labour market is translating into stronger pay gains. Even so, earnings growth needs to gather more pace in order to match the rise in CPI inflation... 30th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment & Household Spending (Jul.) We wouldn’t read too much into July’s slowdown in household spending as the data tend to understate private consumption. Meanwhile, strong job growth is lifting household incomes and providing a... 29th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly How will New Zealand’s election affect its economy? The general election in New Zealand could have a bigger influence on the economy than seemed possible a few weeks ago. If National needs the support of NZ First to form a majority government then the... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Efforts to reform labour market fall short Japan’s government is worried that a sharp increase in the number of part-time workers will feed into weaker growth in productivity in future and it has proposed a package of labour reforms in... 25th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Unemployment rate to fall further than Fed expects We forecast a 200,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in August, and suspect that the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%, below the current end-year projection of Fed officials. The surveys suggest it could... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norway GDP & Swiss Ind. Prod. (Q2) & Sweden Unemploy’t (Jul.) Norway’s mainland economy recorded another strong expansion in Q2 and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery will continue to gain pace. But with inflation set to fall further, we doubt... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack A strong Q2, but regional growth nearing a peak The raft of second quarter GDP data released over the past few weeks showed that growth in Emerging Europe as a whole accelerated to around 3.7% y/y, its fastest pace since 2011. The pickup in growth... 22nd August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Can unemployment keep falling? Despite relatively sluggish GDP growth in the first half of 2017, jobs growth has maintained a solid pace, with the unemployment rate having now fallen below the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC)... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Where’s the cyclical rise in wage growth? If a cyclical rise in wage growth in Australia was underway, it would show up first in the strongest states and sectors. But wage growth hasn’t risen in New South Wales and Victoria. What’s more... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swiss wage growth to stay low despite unemployment falls The decline in Swiss unemployment in Q2 shows that improving economic conditions are continuing to feed through to the labour market. While we expect unemployment to fall further, we doubt that this... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
