Asia Economics Weekly Korea: Plans to reduce inequality may cause growth to slow Since becoming president of South Korea in May, Moon Jae-in has introduced a range of measures aimed at reducing inequality and cutting youth unemployment. Moon’s policies are likely to boost growth... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jun.) The main reason for the fall in labour cash earnings in June was a slump in summer bonuses. What’s more, a renewed slowdown in working hours lowered base pay. But the surge in part-time pay suggests... 4th August 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Consumer confidence rebounded in July and suggests that private consumption will continue to recover. 2nd August 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jun.) & Flash CPI (Jul.) While June’s unemployment data painted a positive picture of the euro-zone labour market, July’s CPI release confirmed that this strength is putting only modest upward pressure on underlying inflation... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus ASEAN: still searching for purpose at 50 As ASEAN approaches its 50th anniversary, we see little prospect of it transforming itself into the kind of single market and production base which its supporters hope will one day enable it to rival... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Jobs growth switches from soft to soaring After a soft patch at the beginning of this year, jobs growth has soared in Australia in recent months. What’s more, of the net new 154,000 jobs that have been created since March all of them have... 31st July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Transitional agreement increasingly likely The view on both sides of the channel seems to be that agreeing the terms of the UK’s withdrawal will take longer than initially hoped. As a result, a transitional deal allowing freedom of movement... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is inflation really just 1.9%? Most people are right to believe that their inflation rate is not 1.9% as the official ABS data show. As different people spend different shares of their income on different items than the ABS assumes... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Spending, Labour Market & Inflation (Jun.) The rebound in retail sales and “core” household spending in June suggests that consumer spending rose at a solid pace last quarter. Meanwhile, inflation remains very low despite the continued... 28th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Strong payrolls will keep unemployment rate on downward trend We expect a 200,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July, which should have been enough to push the unemployment rate back down to 4.3%. As labour market conditions tighten further, we expect wage... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Survey (July) & Labour Data (June) Both the Swedish Economic Tendency Survey and labour market indicators point to increasing wage and price pressures. This supports our view that the Riksbank and markets are underestimating how soon... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Why has pay growth slowed? We had expected nominal pay growth to remain pretty sluggish – but not to start slowing! Since this is most likely to have been due to the exchange-rate induced rise in import costs, the slowdown... 27th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) Small business confidence was little changed in July and still points to solid gains in industrial production. But even though firms continue to report severe staff shortages, the survey suggests that... 26th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The second consecutive drop in the output index of the manufacturing PMI suggests that the sector is slowing. But the survey still points to faster increases in consumer prices. 24th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Jun.) The surge in full-time jobs in June is likely to fuel growing expectations that the RBA will begin to raise interest rates by the first half of 2018. But despite this latest improvement there is still... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack BJP laying the groundwork for 2019 The result of India’s presidential election is due to be announced later today. It won’t have direct implications for the economy since the role of president is largely ceremonial. But the result... 20th July 2017 · 1 min read
