UK Economic Outlook Trade and investment to pick up the baton Consumer spending growth looks set to slow further this year as the real pay squeeze intensifies. But this should be offset by a stronger contribution from net trade and investment. There is a risk... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly What’s driving the divergence in confidence? The gap between consumer and business confidence has widened further in recent months as rising profits have made firms increasingly optimistic while subdued wage growth has kept households... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market (May) Despite May’s labour market figures suggesting that the economy is close to full employment, the continued weakness of wage growth provides some ammunition to the more dovish members of the Monetary... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Yen to weaken further US 10-year government bond yields have climbed to a two-month high in recent days and we expect them to rise further in coming months. By contrast, the Bank of Japan has underlined its determination... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Jun.) The Economy Watchers Survey continued to improve in June and points to strong gains in consumer spending. 10th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Still waiting for stronger wage pressures Labour market data released in the US and Japan today underline that wage inflation remains elusive throughout the developed world. We still think that average earnings growth is likely to pick up in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Headline employment increased by a stronger than expected 45,300 in June, compared to the consensus estimate of a 10,000 gain, but wage cost pressures remain subdued. Accordingly, there’s nothing in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June) The 222,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, which was well above the consensus forecast at 179,000 and even our own more upbeat 200,000 estimate, is another illustration that the real economy is in... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Still on track for a stronger Q2 Despite the dip in this week’s Markit/CIPS PMI surveys for June, they still provided some reassurance that growth will pick-up in Q2. But this week’s hard data for the industrial and construction... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (May) The acceleration in base pay in May largely reflects a rebound in working hours. While strong growth in part-time pay points to faster overall gains, there is still a long way to go before wage growth... 7th July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May), Final Manuf. PMI (Jun.) While the euro-zone unemployment rate was unchanged in May, survey indicators point to strong employment gains ahead. Nevertheless, the high degree of slack in some countries suggests that it will be... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Tankan (Q2) The jump in the Tankan’s headline index for large manufacturers suggests that economic activity accelerated last quarter. Capacity shortages have intensified and manufacturers are reporting the... 3rd July 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly What is the ECB trying to tell us? ECB President Draghi’s speech earlier this week prompted investors to re-assess the outlook for monetary policy. They now seem to expect the Bank to raise interest rates around the middle of next year... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack CEE labour markets tightening Strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) in the first half of the year has been accompanied by further evidence that labour markets are tightening. Unemployment rates have fallen to record... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Slow wage growth to persist despite strong job growth While the recent run of positive news on the health of the Australian labour market is certainly encouraging, it doesn’t alter the bigger picture that there is still plenty of spare capacity. This... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Ind. Prod., H’H Spending, Unempl. & Cons. Prices (May) Today’s activity data suggest that industrial production expanded at a decent pace in the second quarter. However, consumer spending appears to have eased a touch last month, while price pressures... 30th June 2017 · 1 min read
