Japan Economics Weekly Why is wage growth still subdued? Wage growth is likely to pick up over coming months as the labour market remains extremely tight. But unusually low job mobility in Japan, which is linked to the widespread use of seniority wages and... 10th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Youth unemployment still a drag on potential growth The euro-zone’s youth unemployment rate remains worryingly high. To address this issue, this week’s Eurogroup meeting focused on plans to raise educational attainment, which is a very good place to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Oct.) The Economy Watchers Survey was the strongest it has been since 2014’s sales tax hike last month. Job growth should therefore remain strong and the recent slowdown in consumer spending should come to... 9th November 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Consumer sector in good shape heading into Q4 The monthly data suggest that consumer spending was behind the slowdown in quarterly euro-zone GDP growth in Q3. But September’s rise in retail sales provided a strong starting point for Q4. And the... 8th November 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Sep.) Wage growth rebounded in September and strong growth in part-time earnings suggest that it will pick up further in coming months. But the bigger picture is that much stronger increases would be needed... 7th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The solid 35,300 increase in employment in October, driven by further gains in full-time work, is an encouraging sign for income and spending in the fourth quarter. Although the unemployment rate... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) & Trade (Sep.) The smaller than expected 261,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in October, which was below the 310,000 consensus forecast, isn’t as disappointing as it looks when the cumulative 90,000 upward... 3rd November 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct.) The rise in the Conference Board consumer confidence index to a near 17-year high in October suggests that, following the slightly softer 2.4% annualised gain in real consumption in the third quarter... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Industrial Production, Labour Market & Household Spending (Sep.) Today’s activity data confirm that growth slowed last quarter but a rebound in the current quarter is likely. Meanwhile, strong job growth isn’t reducing unemployment for now as the labour force... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Retail sector on the ropes Despite the sustained strengthening in the Australian labour market, retail sales have been unusually weak in recent months. Admittedly, some of this weakness can be explained by weak price pressures... 31st October 2017 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Subdued inflation outlook will ensure ECB treads carefully The ECB’s decision to reduce its monthly asset purchases from January largely reflected growing optimism that euro-zone inflation will rise towards the target of below, but close to, 2%. Indeed, the... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls set to come storming back from hurricanes We are forecasting a huge 350,000 rebound in payroll employment in October, as the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are reversed. But the bigger picture remains that payroll employment growth will... 26th October 2017 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fiscal deficit target under pressure The rapid expansion of the central government’s deficit in the early stages of the fiscal year is a regular occurrence, as revenues tend to get ramped up in latter months. Nevertheless, there are... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Spending holding up as pay squeeze reaches its worst There can be no question that consumer spending growth has suffered as nominal pay growth has lagged behind the ongoing currency-driven bout of higher inflation. But some of the slowdown in consumer... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Labour Market (Sep.) The larger than expected rise in employment in September marks the seventh consecutive month of strong job gains in Australia and leaves little doubt about the current health of the labour market... 19th October 2017 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy rebounding from hurricane disruption Although GDP growth looks to have slowed slightly in the third quarter, at least partly due to the disruption caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, the surge in the ISM surveys suggests that... 18th October 2017 · 1 min read
