Europe Economics Update Italian labour market not finished shedding jobs yet Employment rose in Italy for the first time in five months in August, but this is unlikely to be the start of a trend. With the short-time work scheme becoming less generous and then expiring at the... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Aug.) & Unemployment (July) Euro-zone core inflation fell to a record low of 0.4% in August and we think that it will remain around that level for the next year at least. Meanwhile, labour market data also published today show... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market (Jul.) The unemployment rate edged higher in July, and we expect it to rise further over the coming months despite a continued recovery in economic activity. Meanwhile, the further fall in the number of... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Flurry of FX action in Nigeria, looming strikes in SA The Central Bank of Nigeria this week took further steps to tighten its oversight over foreign currency transactions and, even if the country’s multiple exchange windows are set to a unified rate, we... 28th August 2020 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
UK Economics Update What to make of diverging unemployment rates in the UK and US While the success of the UK’s job furlough scheme has prevented the unemployment rate from rising as far as it has in the US, an increase in UK unemployment has been delayed rather than avoided... 20th August 2020 · 4 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP & Employment (Q2) The preliminary estimate of euro-zone GDP was unchanged in today’s release, but new data showed that the variation between countries was, if anything, larger than previously thought, while there was a... 14th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment to rise in both countries Australian employment rose in July but more timely data suggest it may have started to decline since then. That makes sense given the renewed and tighter lockdown in Melboune. And we expect further... 14th August 2020 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Mounting cost of ST work puts governments in a bind Short-time working has been widely used during the pandemic to stop unemployment soaring. But even with financial help from Brussels, the mounting costs will force the more fiscally constrained... 13th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jul.) The pick-up in employment in July is likely to unwind in the coming months as the stricter lockdown in Victoria weighs on the labour market. 13th August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jun./Jul.) The cracks evident in the latest batch of labour market data are likely to soon turn into a chasm with the unemployment rate rising from 3.9% to around 7.0% by mid-2021. 11th August 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Number of people on furlough already down by half By July, we think that around 4 million people had already left the government’s job furlough scheme and 5 million remained on the scheme. That fall is faster than we had expected but does not change... 10th August 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Implications of Victoria’s strict lockdown The state of Victoria isn’t getting its virus outbreak under control and imposed draconian restrictions on economic activity this week. These will of course undermine the recovery, but they also mean... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings & Household Spending (Jun.) Wage growth improved a little in June and household incomes are rebounding now that most furloughed workers are back in work. Meanwhile, the surge “core” household spending in June supports our view... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
