Japan Chart Pack Coronavirus derailing the economy Surveys and timely data from late-February onwards show that the economy is in the midst of a deep downturn. Cinema sales, restaurant reservations and the Economy Watchers Survey all point towards... 18th March 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Data Response Labour Market (Jan.) The strong rate of employment growth at the start of the year is a rare bit of good news for the economy at the minute. But this growth will give way to a plunge in employment in the coming months. 17th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey (Feb.) The plunge in the Economy Watcher’s Survey (EWS) in February to its lowest level since the 2011 tsunami suggests that the intensified spread of the coronavirus will cause consumer spending to fall... 9th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Feb.) & International Trade (Jan.) The 30,000 rise in employment in February is encouraging, but the real test will come in the next few months as the effects of the coronavirus outbreak are felt. Despite the strong labour market, the... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The 273,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February confirms that the US economy was in very good shape before the coronavirus hit. Nevertheless, with the 10-year Treasury yield slumping to a new record... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Jan.) The sharp rise in wage growth in January was down to yet another sampling distortion. A more accurate measure showed that wage growth softened and we expect labour earnings to continue to disappoint... 6th March 2020 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (Feb.) & Unemployment (Jan.) February’s fall in inflation reflected the decline in energy prices as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. But if the virus starts to sap domestic demand, then core inflation may decline slightly in... 3rd March 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market, Ind. Production & Retail Sales (Jan.) The coronavirus is likely to knock off course the slight recovery observed in the manufacturing and retail sectors last month. As such, we expect the unemployment rate to rise further over the coming... 28th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payrolls powering ahead for now We expect February’s employment report to ease some of the recent fears about the health of the economy, with non-farm payrolls rising by 230,000 and the unemployment rate dropping back to a 50-year... 27th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Threat from the coronavirus continues to grow We estimate GDP growth in Australia continued to muddle along in Q4, edging up from 0.4% q/q in Q3 to 0.5% q/q. In New Zealand, we think a stronger contribution from net trade was offset by a decline... 26th February 2020 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update How low could the unemployment rate go? If the current robust trend in employment growth continues, the unemployment rate could eventually fall to its lowest level since the early 1950s. But even if it does, there are several reasons to... 25th February 2020 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack The coronavirus impact on Indian industry Temporary disruption from the outbreak of the coronavirus should have limited macroeconomic impact on Indian industry. After all, India has a negligible supply-chain exposure to China, where factory... 24th February 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Unemployment will rise and wage growth will fall Data released this week showed that there is still considerable spare capacity in the labour market. The minutes of the RBA’s February meeting showed that the Bank has some concerns about cutting... 21st February 2020 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Labour Market (Jan.) The jump in the unemployment rate in January probably isn’t enough by itself to convince the RBA to cut rates. But we think the weakness in the underlying economy will keep pushing the unemployment... 20th February 2020 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Virus disruption starting to weigh on employment The vast majority of firms in China have enough funds to keep paying their creditors and employees for at least a couple of months amid the disruptions caused by the coronavirus outbreak. But a... 19th February 2020 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - Wage Price Index (Q4) Wage growth remained subdued in the fourth quarter and we expect it to weaken further over the coming quarters. That should eventually convince the RBA to cut interest rates to 0.25%. 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
