Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug. 2024) The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of August, to 5.2% y/y, alongside clear signals from the Fed that it will start loosening monetary policy next month, supports our view that Banxico... 22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies... 22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Update BoK set to loosen policy by more than most expect The Bank of Korea left rates on hold again today but sounded very dovish. With policymakers now more confident about achieving their inflation target and domestic demand set to remain weak, we think... 22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Korea Policy Rate (August 2024) The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, but of more interest will be the tone of Governor Rhee’s press conference and the central bank... 22nd August 2024 · 1 min read
US Rapid Response Fed Minutes (July 30-31) The minutes of the Fed’s late July policy meeting showed broad agreement that “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting” in September. While the weak July Employment Report... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Will public sector pay rises drive up inflation? We don’t think the slew of inflation-busting public sector pay deals that have been agreed by the new government will prevent wage growth from slowing next year to the rates of 3.0-3.5% we think are... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Jackson Hole unlikely to bring more clarity Central bankers are unlikely to offer much forward guidance at this weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, preferring to stress their “data dependence”. Since most economies are expanding, inflation is... 21st August 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for the US dollar as Fed cuts approach With the Fed set to finally start loosening policy and a soft landing still looking like the most probable outcome for the US economy, we think unfavourable rate differentials and continued robust... 21st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Consumer Prices (Jul' 24) The larger-than-expected decline in South Africa’s headline inflation rate, to 4.6% y/y, in July strengthens the case for the SARB to start its easing cycle with a 25bp cut to 8.00% at its next... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response BI hints at rate cuts in Q4 Bank Indonesia today left its policy rate unchanged at 6.25%, but the central bank’s dovish commentary supports our view that rates will be cut before the end of the year. We expect the central bank... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Thailand Monetary Policy Meeting (August 2024) Thailand’s central bank (BoT) today left interest rates unchanged but if, as we expect, growth slows further and inflation remains very low, we think the central bank will start loosening policy from... 21st August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Slowing underlying inflation suggests SARB can cut The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB’s) new “supercore” inflation measure adds yet another piece of evidence that price pressures are being brought under control. We think the SARB should now be... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) The Turkish central bank (CBRT) left its main policy rate unchanged again today, at 50.00%, and offered little sign that it will soon start an easing cycle. While most other analysts expect monetary... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Dovish rate cut by Riksbank, more to follow We think the Riksbank will follow today’s 25bp rate cut with a cut at each of the three remaining meetings this year to take the policy rate to 2.75%. But we expect the terminal rate to be 2.5% which... 20th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Global Drop-In: Towards 2025 – Risks to the global economic and market outlook 1725436800 After a summer of extraordinary economic, market and political developments, what can investors expect through the end of 2024?
