India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (August 2024)

The economy is on course to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on course to become the world’s third-largest economy in the next couple of years. Headline CPI...

27th August 2024 · 1 min read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

The Hungarian central bank suggested that its decision to leave the policy rate on hold today, at 6.75%, was likely to mark a temporary pause in the easing cycle, rather than an end to it. Even so, we...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Brazil IPCA-15 (Aug. 2024)

The small fall in Brazil’s headline inflation rate, to 4.35% y/y in the first half of August, alongside the prospects of a Fed rate cut next month, means that Copom is most likely to leave rates...

27th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Japan Chart Pack

Japan Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Wage growth is starting to outpace inflation and with real incomes rising, the rebound in consumer...

26th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Economics Weekly

25bp or 50bp?

The dovish speech from Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggests that the Fed will be choosing between a 25bp and a 50bp cut at its meeting in September. A 50bp cut would look less...

23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

Nigeria Q2 GDP and business survey, SA inflation

A central bank survey published this week suggested that businesses in Nigeria are still downbeat on the economy, but we think slowing inflation and a more stable naira may soon bring some near-term...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, CBRT’s forward guidance

Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia continued this week and although developments are highly uncertain at this stage, it has big implications for the war. On balance, we think it could delay any...

23rd August 2024 · 8 mins read

US Rapid Response

Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole

Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s dovish tone at Jackson Hole today and pledge to do “everything we can to support a strong labour market” implies that a 50 bp cut could be on the table at the September...

23rd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

July CPI cements the case for another 25 bp cut

The muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July make another interest rate cut at the September meeting seem inevitable. The Bank will be encouraged by the second soft...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico, Chile’s current account, Brazil’s rate hike debate

The data out of Mexico this week, alongside the minutes to the central bank’s August meeting, support our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle in September. Elsewhere, the further...

23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24)

GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Debate over inflation target misses the point

A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation - headline or core - the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. But the more...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Too early to declare end of tightening cycle

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s view that financial markets remain unstable suggests that the Bank may not raise rates as soon as October as we’re anticipating. However, Ueda reiterated that the Bank...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past buoyant public demand

We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks

The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read