Europe Rapid Response Riksbank Policy Announcement (August 2024) Alongside the Riksbank’s decision to reduce the policy rate by 25bp today to 3.5%, policymakers also lowered their rate expectation for the end of this year from either 3.25% or 3.0% at the June... 20th August 2024 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The weaker July employment report and another set of mild inflation data mean the Fed remains on track to cut interest rates in September. With the activity data still supportive of our view that the... 19th August 2024 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update The implications of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire The global macroeconomic risks surrounding a possible ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas are asymmetric. An agreement – while having significant economic consequences for countries in the region... 19th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q2 2024) The 0.6% q/q fall in Chilean GDP in Q2 is mainly payback for a strong Q1, and we expect a return to positive growth in Q3. Still, the Q2 figures should the central bank confidence to deliver a couple... 19th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Focus BoJ would only cut rates if economy tanks While we expect inflation to fall below the Bank of Japan’s 2% next year, the Bank’s still very accommodative stance means that this alone won’t trigger interest rate cuts. We think it would require a... 19th August 2024 · 15 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK enjoying ‘Goldilocks’ conditions? The good news just kept coming this week. The economy grew at an above-trend rate for the second quarter in a row in Q2, the unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. At 2.2%, CPI inflation is only a touch... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Not a balance sheet recession, yet Weak credit data has stoked fears of a balance sheet recession in China. While the economy is still far from reaching that point, the private sector will eventually start to cut down on its borrowing... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Argentine inflation, Brazil’s hawks, change in Venezuela? Suggestions from the governments of Brazil and Colombia have led to a bit of movement towards solving Venezuela’s post-election stand-off. A lot remains uncertain, but our sense is that the likelihood... 16th August 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Thailand’s truce breaks down, Asia’s central banks start to shift stance Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the third member of her family to serve as Thailand’s prime minister. Both her father and her aunt then went into exile. Events over the past two weeks will give investors no... 16th August 2024 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Consumption revival points to another rate hike The strong rebound in household consumption last quarter was underpinned by a pick-up in real incomes. This should allay lingering concerns among BoJ policymakers that the economy is too weak to cope... 16th August 2024 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBNZ likely to loosen faster than it has signalled When it kicked off its easing cycle this week, the RBNZ indicated that it would take a measured approach to cutting rates over the coming months. However, we think the Bank is understating the... 16th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2024) The Colombian economy isn’t nearly as weak as the meagre 0.1% q/q rise in headline GDP in Q2 would suggest; there was a large drag from net trade while domestic demand remained very strong. The strong... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response Nigeria Consumer Prices (Jul. '24) Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 33.4% in July, the first time it had slowed in 18 months, as the passthrough from previous naira falls has finally started to faded. With inflation having... 15th August 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank remains hawkish Norges Bank’s decision to leave its policy rate unchanged at today’s meeting, at 4.5%, was never in doubt. However, we still suspect that continued declines in inflation will allow it to start cutting... 15th August 2024 · 3 mins read
