Europe Economics Weekly

Market “turmoil” not a big concern for euro-zone

The brief period of turmoil in global markets which continued earlier this week should not have a lasting impact on the euro-zone. Most of the market moves were small and have already been largely...

9th August 2024 · 8 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Emerging Europe & the mid-summer market turmoil

Global financial markets have unwound some of the big moves from late last week and early this week, and we doubt the latest market gyrations will change the economic or policymaking outlook much in...

9th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Norges Bank will stick to hawkish tone for now

Inflation in Norway has continued to fall more quickly than policymakers expected. But with the krone coming under renewed pressure recently, we think they will maintain a hawkish tone next week.

9th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

Mexico’s central bank opted to reduce its policy rate by 25bp, to 10.75%, at today’s meeting and the statement generally retained the moderately dovish tone from the last one. We think further rate...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Strong franc opens door to FX purchases and rate cuts

Recent safe haven flows into the franc may have prompted limited FX interventions by the SNB. But we think that the policy rate will remain its main policy tool, even for dampening the franc’s...

8th August 2024 · 3 mins read

China Economics Weekly

PBOC to remain timid despite renminbi turnaround

The recent batch of weaker-than-expected US data and resulting global market fallout hasn’t significantly altered China’s economic outlook. While US recession risks have risen somewhat, a soft landing...

8th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Event

Asia Drop-In: The timing of Asian rate cuts and the impact of global markets volatility

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Even as most EM central banks outside of Asia started lowering interest rates a year ago, those within the region have kept their powder dry. That could be about to change.

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024)

The rise in Mexico’s headline inflation rate, to 5.6% y/y in July, alongside the weakness in the peso means that Banxico’s interest rate decision later today will be a very close call between a cut...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Market optimism for RBA rate cuts seems misplaced

We're sending this Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have largely shrugged off...

8th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response

Egypt Consumer Prices (Jul. 2024)

Egypt’s headline inflation slowed from 27.5% y/y in June to 25.7% y/y in July, its lowest rate since December 2022. And this came in spite of recent hikes to the prices of baladi bread and fuel. We...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

India Economics Update

RBI to ease policy by year-end

The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation...

8th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Bank of Japan will still press ahead with another hike

We're sending this Japan Economics Weekly one day earlier than usual because our Singapore office is closed on Friday for National Day. Financial markets have calmed following the turmoil earlier this...

8th August 2024 · 4 mins read

India Rapid Response

RBI Policy Announcement (Aug. 2024)

The recent market turmoil didn’t move the needle for the MPC today: it continued to strike a hawkish tone as the majority of members voted to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.50%. But with inflation...

8th August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Chart Pack

UK Economics Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

At its last policy meeting, the Bank of England still sounded a long way from being assured that inflation and wage growth will continue to ease. As a result, we doubt the recent moves in global...

7th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Focus

ECB rate cuts will do little to boost GDP

We suspect that the boost to euro-zone economic growth from interest rate cuts over the next year or two will be quite small. The ECB is likely to lower its policy rates only gradually and leave them...

7th August 2024 · 10 mins read