Europe Rapid Response Germany State CPI (Mar.) The fall in CPI inflation in the major German states in March all but confirms that both German and euro-zone HICP inflation will come in lower than expected in March. This will please ECB... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) Australian house prices continued to pare their gains last month. And a further loss of momentum appears likely in the near term, especially given that the RBA is unlikely to come to the housing... 2nd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Japan Economics Update Banks set to become major holders of JGBs yet again Once the Bank of Japan starts to reduce its huge holdings of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) in earnest, we think that commercial banks will once again become major holders of JGBs. Insurance firms... 2nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Mixed results from the Bank’s latest surveys The Bank of Canada’s quarterly business and consumer surveys remain consistent with weak GDP growth and generally show that inflation expectations are normalising, but the latter are still too high... 1st April 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Copom’s concerns, Maduro tests the US, Chile’s lithium The minutes to the Brazilian central bank’s meeting last week confirmed our view that Copom will soon start to slow the pace of easing. Meanwhile, developments in Venezuela this week mean that it now... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong start to the year unlikely to be sustained The economy made a strong start to 2024, but that was partly due to the end of strike disruption and the record warm winter. We expect GDP growth to slow sharply next quarter, persuading the Bank of... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Zambia clears debt hurdle, CBN stepping up Zambia secured an debt restructuring deal with private bondholders this week. It looks like it has the seal of approval from official creditors, paving the way for the country to finally exit default... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly European fiscal strains getting worse It was revealed this week that France’s deficit in 2025 was much higher than expected, adding to concerns about Europe’s public finances. While the EU’s fiscal rules do not kick in until 2025, it now... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment. But tight fiscal and monetary policy will constrain the recovery and our GDP... 28th March 2024 · 0 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly MNB easing to slow further, Turkey election preview The post-meeting communications from Hungary’s central bank (MNB) this week support our view that the pace of interest rate cuts will slow even further over the coming months. Meanwhile, Turkey’s... 28th March 2024 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why interest rate cuts may crimp household income It’s unusual that higher interest rates have directly boosted household incomes by raising the amount of interest households have received on their savings by more than the interest they have paid on... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economic Outlook On course for a soft landing In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US... 28th March 2024 · 45 mins read
Europe Economics Update Money and lending growth will remain subdued February’s money and credit data suggest that the effect of tighter monetary policy has eased slightly. But the data are still very weak and we think that rate cuts later in the year will lead to only... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates only in November While the data released this week confirm that Australia's economy is cooling, it is far too early for the RBA to declare victory in its fight against inflation. Indeed, underlying inflation seems to... 28th March 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Government readies for FX intervention With the yen weakening to a fresh 34-year low against the dollar, the Ministry of Finance signaled that an intervention in the foreign exchange markets is imminent. However, the yen will certainly not... 28th March 2024 · 5 mins read
