ECB Watch ECB preparing the ground for rate cuts in June Next week, we expect the ECB to signal clearly that as long as economic developments are broadly in line with official forecasts, it will cut interest rates in June. There is a decent case for a 50bp... 4th April 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold at 5.75% today as it looked through the recent sharp drop in inflation in March. We think a rebound in inflation in the second half of... 4th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) Romania’s central bank left its policy rate on hold at 7.00% as expected again today but with inflation likely to fall further, a monetary easing cycle is probably just around the corner. We maintain... 4th April 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Vietnam: Central bank to cut rates further to boost growth Vietnam’s banks are likely to remain cautious this year and both credit and GDP growth are likely to come in below trend. The central bank will have to cut rates further to stimulate demand. 4th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Unemployment needs to reach 5% to cool inflation We believe that the “narrow path” of returning inflation to target while keeping unemployment below pre-pandemic levels is wishful thinking. The Reserve Bank of Australia won’t bring domestic cost... 4th April 2024 · 15 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Case for cuts strengthening While the recent inflation data have strengthened the case for interest rate cuts, we suspect that the Bank of Canada will need at least one more month of similar data before it loosens policy. The... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Mar. 24) China’s economy continued to recover in the first months of the new year. And we think fiscal support will keep supporting growth in the near-term. That said, the property sector remains a drag on the... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: easing cycle entering a slower phase The more cautious tone of the Monetary Policy Report released by Chile’s central bank today confirms that policymakers have been spooked by the inflation surprises at the start of the year and has... 3rd April 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Wage data to watch ahead of the ECB’s June meeting ECB officials have stressed that evidence of easing wage growth will be key in determining the timing of the first rate cut. Accordingly, this Update assesses which of the euro-zone’s numerous wage... 3rd April 2024 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Focus Excess Savings RIP We think that it is now time for the curtains to close on the so-called ‘excess savings’ debate. While unusually high savings accumulated by households during the pandemic helped prevent recessions in... 3rd April 2024 · 20 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook EM easing cycle to broaden out GDP growth across most of the emerging world will fall short of consensus expectations this year. But there will be key bright spots such as India and Taiwan. While disinflation is likely to proceed... 3rd April 2024 · 26 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) The recent easing in price pressures and the Bank of England's new-found dovish slant has convinced investors that interest rates will be cut a bit further over the next two years. But we still think... 3rd April 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) The increase in Turkish inflation, to 68.5% y/y in March, will keep pressure on the central bank to hike interest rates further at its meeting later this month. We maintain our forecast for a 250bp... 3rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update RBNZ will start loosening policy in Q3 We expect the RBNZ to hold rates steady at its meeting next Wednesday. But with the economy in a deep slump and inflation clearly on the way down, the Committee is likely to tone down its tightening... 3rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The economy made a strong start to the year, but that was largely due to temporary factors that will soon fade. With spare capacity emerging, particularly in the labour market, downward progress on... 2nd April 2024 · 1 min read
