Canada Economics Weekly

July CPI cements the case for another 25 bp cut

The muted gains in the Bank of Canada’s preferred core price measures in July make another interest rate cut at the September meeting seem inevitable. The Bank will be encouraged by the second soft...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

Banxico, Chile’s current account, Brazil’s rate hike debate

The data out of Mexico this week, alongside the minutes to the central bank’s August meeting, support our view that Banxico will continue its easing cycle in September. Elsewhere, the further...

23rd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Aug '24)

GDP growth looks set for a modest pick up over the coming quarters as inflation falls back in most SSA economies and monetary easing cycles broaden out. The external environment will remain...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read

India Economics Weekly

Debate over inflation target misses the point

A longstanding debate in Indian policymaking circles over which measure of consumer price inflation - headline or core - the RBI should target has been reignited in recent weeks. But the more...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

Too early to declare end of tightening cycle

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s view that financial markets remain unstable suggests that the Bank may not raise rates as soon as October as we’re anticipating. However, Ueda reiterated that the Bank...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

RBA will look past buoyant public demand

We are resending this publication because we have adjusted our forecast for the monthly CPI indicator due next week. The minutes of the RBA's August meeting revealed that the Bank remains concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 4 mins read

Asia Economics Weekly

Taiwan defies dovish shift among Asia’s central banks

The common theme across the three central bank meetings in Asia this week was that inflation concerns are fading, partly due to a rebound in currencies, and policymakers appear a bit more concerned...

23rd August 2024 · 5 mins read

Emerging Europe Chart Pack

Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024)

Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Q2 GDP data out of Emerging Europe have generally disappointed to the downside, and...

22nd August 2024 · 1 min read

Latin America Rapid Response

Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Aug. 2024)

The fall in Mexican inflation in the first half of August, to 5.2% y/y, alongside clear signals from the Fed that it will start loosening monetary policy next month, supports our view that Banxico...

22nd August 2024 · 2 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Ceasefire latest, CBE governor stays on, PIF annual report

The US government has pushed for a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas this week, but an agreement seems some way off still. A deal would benefit Egypt, Jordan and Lebanon, whose economies...

22nd August 2024 · 6 mins read

Asia Economics Update

BoK set to loosen policy by more than most expect

The Bank of Korea left rates on hold again today but sounded very dovish. With policymakers now more confident about achieving their inflation target and domestic demand set to remain weak, we think...

22nd August 2024 · 3 mins read

Asia Rapid Response

Korea Policy Rate (August 2024)

The decision by the Bank of Korea to leave interest rates unchanged (at 3.5%) today came as no surprise, but of more interest will be the tone of Governor Rhee’s press conference and the central bank...

22nd August 2024 · 1 min read

US Rapid Response

Fed Minutes (July 30-31)

The minutes of the Fed’s late July policy meeting showed broad agreement that “it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting” in September. While the weak July Employment Report...

21st August 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Update

Will public sector pay rises drive up inflation?

We don’t think the slew of inflation-busting public sector pay deals that have been agreed by the new government will prevent wage growth from slowing next year to the rates of 3.0-3.5% we think are...

21st August 2024 · 4 mins read

Global Economics Update

Jackson Hole unlikely to bring more clarity

Central bankers are unlikely to offer much forward guidance at this weekend’s Jackson Hole symposium, preferring to stress their “data dependence”. Since most economies are expanding, inflation is...

21st August 2024 · 5 mins read