Asia Economics Update

Korea: fall in inflation opens the door to October cut

Inflation in Korea fell back sharply last month, supporting our view that the central bank will cut interest rates at its next meeting in October.

3rd September 2024 · 2 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

Economy losing momentum

Second-quarter GDP growth surprised to the upside of the Bank of Canada’s forecast, but the evidence that growth slowed sharply over the quarter suggests that third-quarter growth will be much weaker...

30th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Latin America Economics Weekly

New bosses for Pemex and the BCB

The nomination of Gabriel Galípolo, an ally of President Lula, as the next head of Brazil’s central bank has raised concerns about the politicisation of monetary policy (and a dovish tilt). But...

30th August 2024 · 8 mins read

China Chart Pack

China Chart Pack (Aug. 24)

Falling house prices and a soft labour market will continue to hold back consumer spending over the coming months. And with the PBOC concerned about a bond bubble, large-scale monetary easing appears...

30th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Weekly

Taking stock of the euro-zone’s Q3 performance so far

At this stage, we have no significant hard data with which to assess economic activity in the euro-zone in Q3. But the signs from the business surveys are not promising. Meanwhile, the minutes of the...

30th August 2024 · 7 mins read

India Economics Weekly

MPC shake-up suggests no October rate cut

Confirmation that the two most dovish members of the MPC will be stepping down before the RBI's next policy meeting in October strengthens our view that the panel won't vote to cut rates in that...

30th August 2024 · 4 mins read

Japan Economics Weekly

BoJ will press ahead with another rate hike

The jump in the unemployment rate in July is a lagged response to the weakness in economic activity around the turn of the year. Given that the July industrial production and retail sales data are...

30th August 2024 · 5 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly

Libya’s crisis, Egypt’s central bank meeting

The oil market was rocked by two political shocks in the past week: an exchange of missiles between Israel and Hezbollah and a crisis in Libya, which led to cuts to its oil output. At the margin, the...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

China Rapid Response

PBOC buys bonds today but will be selling soon

The PBOC has just revealed that it purchased RMB400bn of government bonds from primary dealers today. This might seem like an odd move given that the central bank has spent recent months trying to...

29th August 2024 · 2 mins read

China Economics Update

PBOC at the mercy of leadership’s muddled priorities

The PBOC appears poised to step up its efforts to prevent bond yields from falling, even though lower borrowing costs would help the economy right now. The inconsistencies in its policy approach are...

29th August 2024 · 6 mins read

Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack

Emerging Markets Chart Pack (August 2024)

EM recoveries are beginning to slow and should continue to do so over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Asia the outperformer and Latin America the laggard...

29th August 2024 · 1 min read

Bank of Canada Watch

Another meeting, another 25bp cut

The dovish communication following the last meeting and the encouraging July CPI report leave little doubt that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again next week. A 25bp cut, to 4.25%...

28th August 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.)

The decision by the Bank of Israel (BoI) to leave its policy rate on hold again today (at 4.50%) rather than resume the easing cycle, reflects policymakers’ concerns with supply-side constraints in...

28th August 2024 · 2 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (August 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most Latin American economies appear to have headed into Q3 with little momentum...

28th August 2024 · 1 min read

Africa Economics Update

Nigeria: a bumpy recovery ahead

The pick-up in Nigerian GDP growth seen in Q2 will probably be followed by a renewed slowdown this quarter. But we think the backdrop of rising oil production, falling inflation and possible interest...

28th August 2024 · 3 mins read