Africa Economics Update Nigeria: A slower economy risks turning MPC doveish The Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) monetary policy reforms have injected a welcome dose of momentum back into the country’s policy shift. But the minutes to the latest MPC meetings also suggest that... 24th April 2024 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: surprise hike, but no further tightening likely In a surprise move, Bank Indonesia (BI) today hiked its main policy rate by 25bps (to 6.25%) and made clear that supporting the currency would remain its key priority over the coming months. But there... 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Apr. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. (Please ignore the previous email which linked to the February Chart Pack) The latest activity data... 24th April 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices (Q1 2024) With price pressures proving inordinately resilient, there is little scope for the Reserve Bank of Australia to start loosening policy in the near future. 24th April 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily European corporate bond yields could fall further We expect corporate bond yields in the UK and euro-zone to fall as rate cuts in those economies push down risk-free rates and strong risk sentiment narrows spreads further. 23rd April 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Apr.) The communications accompanying the decision by the Hungarian central bank (MNB) to opt for a smaller 50bp cut to its base rate today, to 7.75%, provides support to our view that its monetary easing... 23rd April 2024 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update China trip notes – sentiment still depressed A week spent visiting clients, contacts and friends in Beijing and Shanghai has underlined the extent of the pessimistic shift in sentiment within China. 23rd April 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Time to worry about inflation (again)? Recent currency falls and higher oil prices are unlikely to put significant upward pressure on consumer prices across Asia. We continue to expect inflation in the region to remain low over the coming... 22nd April 2024 · 2 mins read
Bank of Japan Watch Bank of Japan will deliver final rate hike in July Governor Ueda sounds keen on tightening policy further and we’re pencilling in another interest rate hike at the Bank of Japan’s July meeting. However, with underlying inflation set to fall below 2%... 22nd April 2024 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Nigeria naira rebound, SA election and late rate cuts The naira’s surprising recent recovery appears to have been driven by FX reserve sales and the currency risks becoming overvalued again. We think renewed naira weakness is on the cards over the rest... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Currency worries, Venezuela oil sanctions The recent falls in many Latin American currencies, alongside stubbornly strong core price pressures, support our relatively hawkish view on the outlook for monetary policy in the region. Elsewhere... 19th April 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Oil and gas price spikes not likely to stop ECB cuts We think the risk of a large and sustained rise in energy prices is low so we remain happy with our forecast that the ECB will cut rates by 125bp this year. If energy prices were to jump very sharply... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly How will Bank Indonesia respond to the slump in the rupiah? With the rupiah coming under further downward pressure against the US dollar this week, a rate hike by Bank Indonesia at its scheduled meeting on Wednesday cannot be ruled out. However, our sense is... 19th April 2024 · 6 mins read
