Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Q2) 31st July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle In detailed analysis last year, we concluded that equilibrium nominal interest rates would settle at between 3% and 4% in advanced economies in the next ten years. We maintain that opinion and in fact... 30th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q2 Provisional) The weaker-than-expected 0.2% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q2 means that Banxico is likely to resume its easing cycle at next week’s Board meeting with a 25bp cut to 10.75%. 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China Politburo Meeting (Jul. 2024) The readout of the Politburo’s latest triannual meeting on economic affairs has just been published by state media. It was dovish in tone and adds to recent evidence that the leadership believes more... 30th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Is EM central bank independence under threat? Donald Trump’s comments on the Fed have brought the issue of central bank independence into the spotlight. This is not just a concern in the US but an issue that is rearing its head in a number of EMs... 29th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (July 2024) Our MENA Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output... 29th July 2024 · 1 min read
Asia Rapid Response Further easing on the cards The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) lowered its policy rate by 100bps today, and further easing is likely later in the year. Today’s cut marks the second consecutive meeting where the central bank has... 29th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada races ahead of the pack The Bank of Canada’s second 25bp interest rate cut, taking the policy rate to 4.50%, was accompanied by a dovish shift in the communications. Our base case is that the Bank will continue to cut rates... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Upside surprises not enough to prevent September cut The modest upside surprises to GDP and core PCE price growth revealed by the data this week were not enough to change the big picture that the economy has lost momentum this year and the... 26th July 2024 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of... 26th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Biden calls for AGOA extension, SA inflation The 21st Forum on the African Growth and Opportunities Act (AGOA) took place in Washington this week with attention focussed on not only extending the legislation but also improving it in light of... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Venezuela votes, Mexico’s gigafactory & inflation worries Opinion polls suggest that Venezuela’s election on Sunday could bring Chavismo to an end, allowing the economy to open up and for sanctions to be lifted. But we doubt that the economic damage of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Russia’s central bank (CBR) stepped up to the plate with a 200bp hike to its key policy rate today, to 18.00%, in response to the overheating economy and a renewed surge in inflation. While we think... 26th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Services inflation slowing but broadening The data released this week on balance increase the risk that the Bank of Japan leaves interest rates unchanged next week. While household disposable income jumped in Q1, that reflected a one-off... 26th July 2024 · 4 mins read
